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@BloombergQuint: The F&O Show #BQLive - BSE's Ashish Kumar Chauhan on the exchanges' commodity derivatives trading - Find out the best bets to place in a volatile market - Get your F&O queries answered https://t.co/SWyWWpSX5c
Same as title. Is there too many or too little amount of bets you should place? Edit: For example, yesterday there were tons of EPL games, is betting on all of them too many bets or should you just pick a couple?
In Democrat-run Seattle, Communists have seceded from the US. They don't allow money, everything must be bartered, and it looks like it's about 99% young white people. And homeless people already stole most of their food. Anyone want to place bets on how long it lasts?
Volatility is King and Cash is its prince Part II: How to place an appropriate bet on Volatility
Fortunes of the few are made out of the ruins of many. I find this to be what has driven much of the wealth growth over the last five years in our country. With a Vix bet, you aim to be on the right side of the phrase and become the few who profit off the ruins of many. I said I’d follow up from this post after I got many constructive questions about the Vix and had productive discussion with a curious batch of people who wished to learn more and retard less. So let’s get into part two: how to place a good Vix bet without getting completely fucked by your assumptions. Of course, keep in mind this is not financial advice, and you must do much more research into this strategy before trusting Reddit. I aim for this to be a guide, not a template, nor a direct object of execution. So plot accordingly. Alright. You’re a reasonable investor. You’ve been trading through this mind numbing rally as Covid takes up its records and economic activity takes down its momentum into declining territory. Like many people, retail investors choose to wear blindfolds over masks and are not protecting themselves from massive downside. Presenting us an intriguing opportunity in Vix. Vix is presently around 28. It typically hangs around 15 or so. We have now passed beyond the typical time for the vix to be above 26, the implication being volatility will stay around for awhile yet. Not for nothing, but this has so far been the sixth most volatile year on the markets since 1929. And when volatility is this high in a given year, it always stays volatile through the end of the year. Quite simply, december Vix calls are the best. They have the most time, the least theta burn as of now, and depending on your strike, are almost guaranteed to be profitable at some point before the end of the year. Let’s get into why things like debit spreads are a less efficient way to buy into the vix. For those who trade verticals for instance, they’ll try for something like a 60/85 spread. The trader is thinking at the time ‘Hey, once it goes above 85, I’ll cash out and have made out with 33x return. Slow down there options cowboy. You’re forgetting something. IV fucks hard with your premise. Because of how the Vix structures out, you’re only going to see a fraction of that 1500 come in. In fact, should you have the Vix spread clear 80, you would only see $570 on the 45 initially invested. An impressive feat, but given the risk and the lack of profitability compared to singles, you haven’t maximized your risk-reward potential the way a single does. Since the Vix is briefly high and mostly low, and you’re not going to be able to execute the spread until expiration, you have to either have extraordinary timing and have the vix up to 80 to get the options to expire that day, or sell the spread for the 570 on it, or you watch it go back down and lose the whole bet. This picture should help clarify. As you can see, we're simulating a 65/80 debit spread that expires in Decemeber. As of today's trading, if the spread we're to be in the money, you'd only be making around $500 (purple line) of the supposed 1455 (blue). As we get closer to the expiration, the value of the spread will get closer to its intrinsic value, but not at a good rate until the last couple of weeks/days leading up to the expiration date. And dear god, don’t even try a butterfly. You are guaranteed to be fucked unless you’re doing weeklies. But what if we did have a 40 Vix call, and saw the Vix go to 80? Well, with the 40 strike trading at 3.2, you’d see it go up to 3817 if the Vix reached 80 for a 11.9x return, 4290 for a 13.4x return at 85, and 90 (which would be a vix ‘record’) would return you 4753 for a 14.85x return. But importantly, if the vix traded only to 50 on the next rise, you would still walk out with a $700 profit minimum, whereas a high strike vertical spread would only see a fraction of that. Truthfully the flexibility of singles in the Vix outweighs returns in verticals in my opinion, because those singles aren’t attached to the sell side of a spread and thus can deliver you profits you can more readily take. I’m a huge fan of verticals and different forms of spreads. But because of the unique nature of the Vix, and it’s primary value coming from it being an equation, I find singles are your best and most flexible way of operating with the Vix. Another big part of why I find singles helpful: technicals. “Technicals on the Vix? Astro, you’re using Martian techniques to use technicals on the Vix.” Exactly. For the most part, the Vix has no technical basis to really use well. I’ve found in my vix trading that technicals are not indicative of potential moves, but rather a self-confirmatory tool chartists use to support their bias. I do think technicals are a great tool, but for equities that are effected by buying and selling, NOT for equations. So all those descending triangles you see on a ‘vix analysis’? Forget about them. They’re as useless as the twitter handle insisting for 5.99 they can give you the trade to make you rich. The only time I would say technicals have merit on the vix is using horizontal lines at the lows. If you see the vix going below the weekly horizontal trend lines when it’s at its lows, that may be a good sign it’s time to go long volatility. But that’s for a vix 12, not vix 29. I would say that this kind of Vix bet laid out above isn’t for everyone. To truly succeed in this bet and see the Vix go to 70+, you can’t just have a bad earnings report, you need something that existed in ’08, ’87, ’29, and 2020: You need an existential crisis. You need some kind of catalysis that convinces people that whatever price they can get for a stock is a good price, because it could lose 90% of its value. Without an existential crisis, you just have controlled selling which will get you a 45 vix at best. Citi hit a dollar because people were terrified banks would go under. 22% of value erased one day in 1987 because people were afraid the stock market could collapse for a lack of liquidity. You get the idea. I will not speculate on various existential crisis that could hit the markets, but if you have one you truly believe in, and you think there’s a legitimate chance it hits before december, you have the merits to buy vix calls. If you don’t foresee an existential crisis, there are better bets for you. Now, I am aware that Vix calls are not available to many people, so I’ll get into the instruments that are great substitutes to the Vix in the final post. Namely, I’ll be tackling VXX and UVXY, with mentions of SVXY, and why TVIX was a scam instrument. I don't think this post is as in depth as my typical ones, but that's because this part is a bit simple. The last part to this mini-series will definitely be getting into some finer and important details in volatility instrument selection.
The calendar for Security Breach is still slated to release in 2 days. Either it gets delayed or Scott and Steel Wool let the cats out of their individually wrapped British Rock Band bags. Place your bets...
Alright retards, I looked at every SPY market open in 2020 and have the following shitty story to share. TL;DR: SPY opens are basically black/red at a roulette table, strike price is whatever your sexuality or wife’s BF says to buy for next Friday. SPY has opened positive 52% (51 days) of the time. On those positive opens, markets have moved up 0-2% 51% of the time, 2.01-4% 16% of the time, and >4% the remainder. For the negative opens, markets moved down 0-2% 53% of the time, 2.01-4% 13% of the time, and >4% the rest. Out of the last 10 days, SPY has opened red 7 times. Last 20 has been 50/50. Last 30 has been positive 16:14. Spy opens positive more often, but when it’s negative it drops more. This is intended to be used as confirmation bias for whatever type of idiot you are.
Hey guys, Just need some opinions here: Thinking of maybe travelling to Vegas for a day to place some bets at sportsbook. Would that be allowed to redeem after if I win(Considering I am Canadian?) I have placed some small bets on offshore sites but of course going to Vegas for some of these bets would be more profitable if I ended up winning. Let me know if you guys think it should be fine!
If this is true, Dave will: a) Pretend it doesn’t exist b) Downplay it c) Defend it d) Initially pretend it doesn’t exist only to be forced into acknowledging it and proceed to downplay or defend it! Place your bets everyone!
Soccer Betting Tips - A Few Things To Know To begin with, you must be well aware of the place where you want to place your Soccer Betting Tips. It is wise to have this knowledge before you even consider placing your bet. Soccer Betting Tips will help you with that.
[Rovell] The most intriguing bet of the draft was just placed. A like “what does this dude know?” bet. Someone just bet $3,000 at @BetMGM for the Miami Dolphins to take Utah State QB Jordan Love. Would profit $36,000.
The idea of place betting seems appealing and many punters may look towards that strategy because they can’t quite get across the line to profit on the win betting side of things.It’s easy to identify days where you lost on your win bets and calculate that if you had of backed those horses to place, that you would have made money. What is a Place Bet? When you bet to place your horse must finish first or second in order for you to cash a ticket. The payoffs are understandably lower on winning place bets because the place pool (all money wagered to place on a race minus the track takeout) is split between two horses – the horse that wins the race and the horse that finishes second. That is one of the reasons why place betting could be a better alternative. The advantages and disadvantages of a place bet against a win only wager is worth highlighting to you in more detail. Pros and cons of place betting. A significant plus of betting on horses to place is the wager pays out on more than the first place. Horse betting online took rise in the 1980s. Before that horse gambling had to take place on the tracks. As the internet developed, so did online betting horses. Now, almost all major race tracks have their betting platform. Allowing bettors to place live bets from anywhere in the world. Welcome Bonuses. Because of the variety of betting websites. Place - Your horse must come in first or second. Next to the win bet, the Place wager is one of the oldest and most traditional. With a place wager, your horse must finish first or second. The wager pays the same whether your horse wins or not. Place and Show bets are much more conservative , as you
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