Indy 500 Betting Preview, Odds, and Predictions - Betting

CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY

CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY

Cineplex (TSX: $CGX)
CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY
Another great medium risk but high potential return stock. The stock has taken a beating because of Covid19 & movie theater closures.
Investors think Cineworld's C$34/share buyout offer will be cancelled, yet Reuter's reported, "Cineworld Says No Change In Co's Position On Cineplex Takeover Since March" on April 7. That's double your money at C$11.69 (at post) if it goes through.
Investors also think Cineplex will cancel their monthly $0.15 per share dividend in their next ER that they delayed until June 29, 2020.
Investors are discounting Cineplex's possible rise of online movie rentals to offset their onsite losses.
The odds don't get better than this but do your Due Diligence before investing.
---------------------------------------------
The Motley Fool described Cineplex as having a "virtual monopoly" over the cinema market in Canada.
#StockPick $CGX -- #ShakingTheTree with #Shorts hitting all the #Bulls #StopLoss down. Easy double or triple opportunity here. Do your #DueDiligence. Good luck to all.
#StockPick #CGX $CGX $CGX.TO
---------------------------------------------

MY DUE DILIGENCE:

---------------------------------------------
52 Week Range:
Low: C$6.30 (Coronavirus Crash)
High: C$34.39 (Buyout Offer)
CGX Stock Performance
---------------------------------------------
Cineplex Inc., formerly known as Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund and Galaxy Entertainment Inc. is a Canadian entertainment company headquartered in Toronto, Ontario. Through its operating subsidiary Cineplex Entertainment LP, Cineplex operates 165 theatres across Canada. The company operates theatres under numerous brands, including Cineplex Cinemas, Cineplex Odeon, SilverCity, Galaxy Cinemas, Cinema City, Famous Players, Scotiabank Theatres and Cineplex VIP Cinemas.
Divisions:
  • Cineplex Odeon
  • Galaxy
  • Famous Players
  • SilverCity
  • Colossus
  • Coliseum
  • Cinema City
  • Scotiabank Theatre
  • Cineplex Cinemas
  • Cineplex VIP Cinemas
Subsidiaries:
  • Cineplex Entertainment LP
  • Player One Amusement Group Inc.
  • Famous Players LP
  • Galaxy Entertainment Inc.
  • Cineplex Media
  • Cineplex Digital Media Inc.
  • Canadian Digital Cinema Partnership (78.2%)
  • Topgolf-Cineplex Canada LP (75%)
  • SCENE LP (50%)
  • Cineplex Entertainment Corporation
  • World Gaming Network Inc. (80%)
  • Alliance Cinemas
2019-present: Proposed acquisition by Cineworld
On December 16, 2019, Cineplex announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by the British cinema operator Cineworld Group, the second-largest film exhibitor worldwide, pending shareholder and regulatory approval. Cineworld would be paying $34 per-share—a 42% premium over Cineplex's share price prior to the announcement, valuing the company at CDN$2.8 billion. Cineworld planned to pay US$1.65 billion, and to fund the remainder by taking on debt.
The sale was approved by Cineplex shareholders in February 2020. Activist shareholder Bluebell Capital Partners called for the Canadian government to block the sale, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. which in turn led to the temporary closure(s) of all Cineplex movie theatres across Canada since March 16, 2020, and up until further notice.
https://www.cineplex.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineplex_Entertainment
---------------------------------------------
Cineplex Store
Browse from over 8500 HD movies including the latest releases and earn SCENE points every time you rent or buy. Watch online or look for the Cineplex Store.
https://store.cineplex.com
---------------------------------------------
ESPORTS: WorldGaming Network (WGN), formerly Virgin Gaming (now owned by Cineplex), is an online video gaming platform that hosts head to head matches, tournaments and ladders for consoles and PC gamers. WorldGaming has had over 3 million gamers register for its platform worldwide which makes it one of the most robust and dynamic global eSports communities. There have been over 6.7 million matches played over 20,000 tournaments held on WorldGaming.com since 2010.
Newzoo: Global esports will top $1 billion in 2020, with China as the top market (Feb 25, 2020):
Global esports revenues will surpass $1 billion in 2020 for the first time — without counting broadcasting platform revenues, according to market researcher Newzoo.
Globally, the total esports audience will grow to 495.0 million people in 2020, Newzoo said. Esports Enthusiasts (people who watch more than once a month) make up 222.9 million of this number.
In 2020, $822.4 million in revenues—or three-quarters of the total market—will come from media rights and sponsorship.
“As the esports market matures, new monetization methods will be implemented and improved upon,” said Remer Rietkerk, head of esports at Newzoo, in the report. “Likewise, the number of local events, leagues, and media rights deals will increase; therefore, we anticipate the average revenue per fan to grow to $5.27 by 2023.”
https://venturebeat.com/2020/02/25/newzoo-global-esports-will-top-1-billion-in-2020-with-china-as-the-top-market
---------------------------------------------
VIRTUAL REALITY
On September 13, 2018, Cineplex announced that it would acquire a stake in VRStudios—a Seattle-based provider of virtual reality installations, and utilize its equipment for as many as 40 VR centers across the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineplex_Entertainment
---------------------------------------------
PLAYDIUM
Playdium is a family entertainment centre chain owned by Cineplex Entertainment through its subsidiary Player One Amusement Group. The flagship location in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada launched as Sega City @ Playdium near Square One Shopping Centre on September 7, 1996. The 11 acres (480,000 sq ft) centre cost CA$17 million to build and included an arcade, batting cages, go-karts and mini-golf. A partnership with Sega GameWorks, it featured many arcade games from that company such as Daytona USA, and eight-player racing setups for Indy 500 (as Virtua Indy) and Manx TT Super Bike. Indy 500 remains available today. In 1999, the centre was renamed to Playdium. The company opened up two more locations in Brampton and Whitby in late 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_One_Amusement_Group#Playdium
---------------------------------------------
The Rec Room
The Rec Room is a Canadian chain of entertainment restaurants owned by Cineplex Entertainment. First opening in Edmonton in 2016, its locations feature entertainment and recreational attractions such as an arcade, driving simulators, recreational games, and virtual reality, as well as restaurants and bars, and an auditorium with a cinema-style screen, which can be used for concerts and other live events.
The Toronto location features The Void virtual reality attraction. In July 2018, Cineplex announced that it would become the exclusive Canadian franchisee of The Void and add additional locations (such as the Mississauga and West Edmonton Mall locations).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rec_Room
---------------------------------------------
SCENE (loyalty program)
SCENE is a Canadian loyalty program established in 2007 by Cineplex Entertainment and Scotiabank.
The main reward is a free movie ticket, starting at 1,250 points for a regular or 3D ticket. Over the years, the program has expanded to include a greater variety of rewards, including restaurants and sporting goods.
https://www.scene.ca
---------------------------------------------
FOOD & BEVERAGES
Cineplex has an Outtakes (French: Restoplex) restaurant in 94 theatres, some which replace previous restaurant partners (Burger King, KFC and New York Fries) and others which introduce restaurants at locations which did not previously feature one. VIP Cinemas and some Xscape locations feature a licensed lounge with more premium offerings compared to Outtakes. Poptopia is a flavoured popcorn restaurant offered in a full-service format at 22 locations. Other Cineplex theatres may feature Poptopia at the concession stand, but only in the caramel corn and/or kettle corn flavours.
Ice cream at Cineplex locations debuted with Baskin-Robbins and TCBY. Beginning in December 2007, Yogen Früz became the preferred partner. On January 1, 2014, Cineplex acquired a 50% stake in Yoyo's Yogurt Café. As of January 2017, 77 Cineplex theatres feature Yoyo's restaurants, while Yogen Fruz is still available in 23 Cineplex theatres while TCBY is available in 16 locations. Cineplex also manages Melt Sweet Creations, an in-house dessert bouqtiue brand targeted at women ages 19-35 debuted in December 2017 at Cineplex Cinemas Queensway and VIP. Melt is available at 13 locations.
Beverages are available in both cold and hot formats. Cold beverages include the Coca-Cola lineup, which replaced the Pepsi lineup used at locations formerly owned by Famous Players. 12 locations feature Coca-Cola Freestyle. Hot beverages include Starbucks as the incumbent provider with 105 locations, all which offer Pike Place Roast coffee (regular or decaf) and Tazo tea. Select locations also offer premium drinks such as caffè mocha or caramel macchiato. Tim Hortons is available as a full-service restaurant in five locations,[75] with Brossard being the only location to offer both Tim Hortons and Starbucks.
In most theatres, Cineplex offers sale of alcohol to 19+ guests in Ontario (18+ in Alberta) similar to the VIP theatres albeit from a selection of beer or cider beverages.
If Aurora Cannabis (ACB) & Cineplex (CGX) partnered up to offer CBD & THC infused Cannabis 2.0 edibles in movie theaters, especially the IMAX & 3D ones, it should do very well. Canadian Cannabis Industry stocks should also do well as I posted earlier Cannabis Stocks Opportunity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineplex_Entertainment
---------------------------------------------

RECENT NEWS:

---------------------------------------------
Cineworld to buy Canada's largest movie theatre chain in $2.8B deal (Dec 16, 2019):
Cineplex’s stock had been trading close to the Cineworld offer price of C$34 per share through early 2020, but has since plunged 40% following the virus outbreak.
Cineplex could lose a potential lifeline if its outstanding debt exceeds more than $725 million. As of December 31, 2019, the debt level was $625 million. The debt might balloon past the threshold with a further lockdown extension.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cineworld-to-buy-canada-s-largest-movie-theatre-chain-in-2-8b-deal-1.4731547
---------------------------------------------
Cineplex shares fall after short seller raises concerns about Cineworld deal (March 5, 2020):
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cineplex-shares-fall-after-short-seller-raises-concerns-about-cineworld-deal-1.4840173
---------------------------------------------
Cineworld Dives After Cineplex Activist Urges Rejection of Deal (March 16, 2020):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/cineworld-dives-as-cineplex-activist-urges-canada-to-block-deal
---------------------------------------------
Cineplex closes locations, provides Cineworld acquisition update (March 17, 2020):
https://mediaincanada.com/2020/03/17/cineplex-to-close-all-canadian-locations
---------------------------------------------
Cineplex Inc. cuts salaries of full-time employees after part-time layoffs (Mar 23, 2020):
P/T employees laid off in Canada & USA. F/T employees take reduced base salaries & senior executive team takes 80% reduction in pay.
https://www.cp24.com/news/cineplex-inc-cuts-salaries-of-full-time-employees-after-part-time-layoffs-1.4864434
---------------------------------------------
Cineworld halts dividend and says will 'monitor progress' of its buyout of Cineplex (April 7, 2020):
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cineworld-halts-dividend-and-says-will-monitor-progress-of-its-buyout-of-cineplex-2020-04-07
---------------------------------------------
Staggered seating, nostalgic films: Cinemark offers a look at movie going post-coronavirus (Apr 15, 2020):
Cinemark, the third-largest movie theater chain in the U.S., hopes to reopen at least some of its doors to the public in July.
With no major movie release until mid-July, theaters could play “library” movies, which are movies that have already previously been released in cinemas, for several weeks.
If social distancing restrictions are still in place the company said it would either sell every other reserved seat in the theater or suspend reservations and just sell 50% of the tickets per theater.
“Even at peak periods of time in a normal environment, our occupancy levels range from 20% to 30% and we can operate profitably during those scenarios...” - CEO Mark Zoradi
He added that Cinemark has seen attendance as low as 10% and still was able to turn a profit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cinemark-offers-a-look-at-movie-going-post-coronavirus.html
---------------------------------------------
North Vancouver's Park & Tilford Cineplex permanently closed (May 20, 2020)
The company closed all 165 theatres across Canada in March due to COVID-19, but the 1,382-seat Brookesbank Avenue location won’t be among those reopening, Cineplex has confirmed.
With Cineplex closing its Lower Lonsdale theatre in 2019, it leaves Park Royal as the only place to catch a big screen flick on the North Shore.
“We thank the community for their patronage over the years, and look forward to welcoming them at neighbouring Cineplex Cinemas Park Royal and VIP,” said Sarah Van Lange, executive director of communications. “I’ll note that our intent is to repurpose the Park & Tilford theatre space, which we’ll have more details on at a later date.”
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vancouver-news/park-tilford-cineplex-movie-theatre-permanently-closed-north-vancouver-bc-2365365
---------------------------------------------

OTHER NEWS & RUMORS:

Why Amazon’s Rumored Buyout of AMC Entertainment Makes Sense (May 12, 2020):
If Amazon can buy AMC, they can most certainly by CGX & dominate & control most of North America's movie theaters. Amazon would then control Hollywood! Why stop there, they should buy Cineworld too.
https://investorplace.com/2020/05/why-amazons-rumored-buyout-of-amc-entertainment-makes-sense
---------------------------------------------
AMC Entertainment Surges 56% on Report of Talks With Amazon (May 11, 2020):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-entertainment-surges-56-report-133822697.html
---------------------------------------------
Alert: Cineplex (TSX:CGX) Could Be Acquired by This Incredibly Unlikely Source (May 12, 2020):
Despite Cineworld maintaining its commitment to buy Cineplex, the market has a different opinion. Remember, Cineplex agreed to be acquired at $34 per share. As I type this, the stock trades at $14.44. There’s no way the spread would be that wide, unless investors were writing off the acquisition completely.
Fortunately for beleaguered Cineplex shareholders, a new suitor could very well come along — one virtually nobody sees coming.
Although I think there’s potential for a private equity group or some other deep-pocketed investor taking a run at Cineplex’s cheap assets, there’s a much more interesting suitor on the horizon.
That acquirer is Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).
https://www.fool.ca/2020/05/12/alert-cineplex-tsxcgx-could-be-acquired-by-this-incredibly-unlikely-source
---------------------------------------------
AMC says it will no longer play Universal Studios films (Apr 28, 2020):
“AMC believes that with this proposed action to go to the home and theaters simultaneously, Universal is breaking the business model and dealings between our two companies,” AMC Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron said in a letter addressed to Universal Studios Chairman Donna Langley.
Universal added that the company looked forward to having “additional private conversations” with AMC but was “disappointed by this seemingly coordinated attempt ... to confuse our position and our actions.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/amc-says-it-will-no-longer-play-universal-studios-films.html
---------------------------------------------
Cineworld joins AMC in banning films from Universal Studios (April 29, 2020):
Cineworld, the world’s second largest cinema chain, has followed its rival AMC in banning Universal Studios films from its cinemas when they reopen, after the Hollywood film-maker released Trolls On Tour direct to streaming platforms.
“There is a certain system of windows which are a custom in the market and this sets the time difference between the theatrical market and other ancillary markets, among them streaming. Any movie that will not respect this window will not be shown in Cineworld group,” Mooky Greidinger, Cineworld’s chief executive, said on Wednesday.
https://www.ft.com/content/3cc70161-e157-4ff1-bfbd-a886dd6d9af5
---------------------------------------------
Odeon bans all Universal Pictures films as studio skips cinema releases (Apr 29, 2020):
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/ap29/odeon-bans-all-universal-pictures-films-as-studio-skips-cinema-releases
---------------------------------------------
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.
AMC Theatres (originally an abbreviation for American Multi-Cinema; often referred to simply as AMC and known in some countries as AMC Cinemas or AMC Multi-Cinemas) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and is the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Cineworld and Cinemark Theatres.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres
---------------------------------------------
Cineworld Group PLC
Cineworld is the world’s second largest cinema chain, with 9,518 screens across 790 sites in 11 countries: the UK, the US, Canada, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Israel, Hungary, Czechia, Bulgaria and Slovakia. The group’s primary brands are Regal (in the US), Cineworld and Picturehouse (in the UK & Ireland), Cinema City (throughout Europe) and Yes Planet (in Israel).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineworld
---------------------------------------------
And Action! All the Movies We Can't Wait to See in Summer 2020 and Beyond (May 22, 2020):
Fingers crossed that it’ll be safe to step into a theater this summer. If they open, there will be plenty to watch. “Summer hits are the popcorn movies,” says film historian, author and podcast host Leonard Maltin. “They can be the biggest box-office hits of the whole year.”
Rest of 2020:
  • To Wong Foo Thanks for Everything, Julie Newmar - VIP (Jun 1)
  • Unhinged (Jul 1)
  • Tenet (Jul 17)
  • Mulan (Jul 24)
  • Summerland (Jul 31)
  • Random Acts Of Violence (Jul 31)
  • The Spongebob Movie: Sponge on the Run (Aug 7)
  • Sound of Metal (Aug 14)
  • Wonder Woman 1984 (Aug 14)
  • Fatima (Aug 14)
  • The One And Only Ivan (Aug 14)
  • The New Mutants (Aug 20)
  • Bill & Ted Face the Music (Aug 21)
  • Antebellum (Aug 21)
  • Monster Hunter (Sep 4)
  • A Quiet Place Part II (Sep 4)
  • The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It (Sep 11)
  • The King's Man (Sep 18)
  • Candyman (Sep 25)
  • Tom Clancy's Without Remorse (Oct 2)
  • BIOS (Oct 2)
  • Death On The Nile (Oct 9)
  • The Witches (Oct 9)
  • The French Dispatch (Oct 16)
  • Halloween Kills (Oct 16)
  • Snake Eyes (Oct 23)
  • Lord And Miller Connected (Oct 23)
  • Everybody's Talking About Jamie (Oct 23)
  • Come Play (Oct 30)
  • Black Widow (Nov 6)
  • Clifford The Big Red Dog (Nov 13)
  • Deep Water (Nov 13)
  • Godzilla Vs. Kong (Nov 20)
  • Soul (Nov 20)
  • Happiest Season (Nov 20)
  • James Bond ‘No Time To Die’ (Nov 25)
  • Free Guy (Dec 11)
  • Dune (Dec 18)
  • Untitled Coming To America Sequel (Dec 18)
  • West Side Story (Dec 18)
  • Top Gun: Maverick (Dec 23)
  • Untitled Tom & Jerry Film (Dec 23)
  • The Croods 2 (Dec 23)
  • News Of The World (Dec 25)
  • Escape Room 2 (Dec 30)
2021:
  • Mortal Kombat (Jan 15)
  • Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway (Jan 15)
  • 355 (Jan 15)
  • Chaos Walking: The Knife of Never Letting Go (Jan 22)
  • Rumble (Jan 29)
  • Cinderella (Feb 5)
  • Nobody (Feb 26)
  • Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Mar 5)
  • Raya And The Last Dragon (Mar 12)
  • Sony/Marvel Morbius (Mar 19)
  • The Boss Baby 2 (Mar 26)
  • Reminiscence (Apr 16)
  • Ron's Gone Wrong (Apr 23)
  • Shang Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings (May 7)
  • Spiral: From The Book Of Saw (May 21)
  • Cruella (May 28)
  • F9 Fast & Furious (Apr 2)
  • Bob's Burgers (Apr 9)
  • Infinite (May 28)
  • Space Jam 2 (Jul 16)
  • Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar (Jul 16)
  • In the Heights (Jun 18)
  • Minions: The Rise Of Gru (Jul 2)
  • All This Victory (Aug 7)
  • The Woman in the Window (TBD 2021)
  • Blithe Spirit (TBD 2021)
  • The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD 2021)
  • Greyhound (TBD)
& MUCH, MUCH MORE MOVIES than listed coming to the big screens.
THE 65 MOST ANTICIPATED MOVIES OF 2020 (May 20, 2020):
https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/most-anticipated-movies-of-2020
---------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION:
Nothing beats watching a great movie on the big screen in premium format:
  • Prime Seats
  • IMAX
  • UltraAVX
  • D-Box
  • VIP Cinemas
  • 4DX
I'm sick of the congested internet & buffering of online movies & services during Covid19. They need to upgrade the internet infrastructure to 5G & Fiber Optics before it can really grow in my opinion -- especially buffering 4K & 8K movies & future tech that will only require more bandwidth going forward.
Younger people are not afraid of Covid19 like the older crowd. When theaters open, they will rush in to see their favourite movies.
Betting that people won't want to go to movie theaters when they re-open, is like betting the same against live sporting events or music concerts.
No home movie theater can match a real movie theater, even the smaller discount ones, unless you're Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos etc.
With Cineplex's Canadian Monopoly & diversification into other entertainment arenas like eSports & Virtual Reality, as long as they don't go bankrupt & social distancing restrictions are loosened, the stock should increase 2 to 3 times by end of 2021 in my opinion -- especially if the Cineworld Buyout goes as planned or another company like Amazon buys them out for a strong presence & control in Canada.
If a Coronavirus Vaccine is discovered sooner than later, then this stock will rebound accordingly & rapidly -- especially if they don't cancel or even if they do, resume Dividend payments in the future. At current prices, Dividend yield is about 13% per year.
---------------------------------------------
Social distance cinema: drive-in theatres boom – in pictures (May 5, 2020):
We are all social creatures & want to go to movie theater as a social activity, to see & be seen; otherwise, why would Drive In Movie theaters boom during Covid19?
If no one goes out to be seen anymore, then all the Vanity Goods & Services will go under too & we will all dress in sweat pants & T-Shirt -- no need for designer suits & dresses working & staying at home. LOL ;p
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/may/05/social-distance-cinema-drive-in-theatres-boom-coronavirus-in-pictures
---------------------------------------------
Internet Bandwidth Requirements:
Online streaming remains the biggest source of 4K content, led by Netflix and Amazon’s growing selection of original series. But many consumer broadband connections aren’t fast enough to allow reliable 4K streaming.
Home Theater Movie Resolutions:
  • 4K (UHD): 3,840 x 2,160 pixels
  • 1080p (Full HD): 1,920 x 1,080 pixels
  • 720p (HD): 1,280 x 720 pixels
  • 480p (SD): 640 x 480 pixels
  • 8K: 7,680 x 4,320 pixels
For comparison purposes, 70mm film - still considered by many to be the gold standard - is roughly equivalent to a 12K resolution in digital terms, so digital's still got some catching up to do on that score.
submitted by extriniti to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Preview of the Commonwealth Turf Stakes and more

Gulfstream Park West
Race: 4 (1:26 PM EST Post)
Sunshine Millions Classic Preview
Art G Is Back is 0 for 6 on the turf and 4 for 6 on the dirt, so he’ll clearly be returning to his favorite surface in this spot. If you ignore the two turf races in his last five starts, you’ll see three straight, convincing (dirt) wins. Gray colt by Exchange Rate is tactical and draws a good post here…..looks best……………..The almost white, very popular, veteran Mr. Jordan has been beaten by a combined 36 lengths in his last two starts. Having said that, this guy must be considered being he is 5 for 5 on this oval and has been on the board in 9 of 11 starts at this distance…………….Richard the Great came back running off a 13 month layoff when he wired a field of $35,000 claimers by a colossal margin last time out. Seven year old by Distorted Humor steps up and stretches out here but the question is, does he “bounce” of such a humongous effort or does he improve further? Your call from there.

Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 8 (3:20 PM EST Post)
Artie Schiller Stakes
I found this race tough to figure as 7 or 8 of them have chance. What was not tough to figure is, with several early burners in here, the pace figures to be wicked fast. That said, logically, I looked at the late runners and came up with Frontier Market, who has been first or second in 10 of 11 careers starts. The six year old by Lemon Drop Kid was flying low, late and just missed in his last, the rail post is winning at a 28% clip early in this meet and arguably the best rider in the country gets the leg up…………….Narrow margin over Caribou Club who also does his best running late, has 9 career wins (second most in the field) and finished in front of my top choice last time out……………..Dr. Edgar has good speed, drops in class and cuts back in distance here. This six year old son of Lookin’ at Lucky’s last race was first rate as he set the pace vs. much better and was still hanging around in deep stretch. Also note, although being run down late in that last race, he did get the final furlong in a very good :12.1…could easily outrun this rating………………..….Honorable Mentions. Linda Rice appears to have the extremely popular Voodoo Song back in top form based off his last two races. Although he loves this distance, I only put him this far down because he’s in against opens and his last several races vs. open company were ….meh….not so great………...........Gidu see Dr. Edgar as this $457,000 son of Frankel, who remains one of the best I’ve ever seen, as he has good speed and tumbles in class quite a bit……………….Golden Brown had won 3 of his prior 4 before chasing the talented Coal Front in his last. Gelding by Offlee Wild is 3 for 6 on the turf and could be a menace in this spot at what will most likely be some hefty odds………………….Curlin’s Honor is a $1,500,000 son of Curlin who invades from Canada after being “right there” at the wire in Grade: 2 and Grade: 3 races in his last couple of races, so this should be a drop in class for him as well.

Churchill Downs
Race: 10 (5:36 PM EST Post)
Commonwealth Turf Stakes
Spectacular Gem has crossed the finish line first in 3 of his 4 turf starts, including back to back Stakes races. Obscurely bred, good looking colt appears to be in career form right now as well………………Tracksmith has yet to run a bad race in 2019 including making a big, late run at my top choice last time out. Figures bang up here…………….Tiz Plus has won 5 of his last 6 including winning a three pronged stretch battle last time out. Steps up but in his current form, he could be a menace late…………………Honorable Mentions: Faraway Kitten finished within shouting distance of my top choice last time out, is 3 for 4 at this distance sports a 12-5-0-3 overall record……………Pirate’s Punch has improved leap and bounds since the 4th of July but tries turf for the first time here. What’s rule #1 in Horse Racing Betting 101? That right…..“Never bet a horse who is trying something for the first time”. Of course, his trainer being 0 for 10 with turf debut runners doesn’t help either.
By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [email protected] 2019- Record: 76-222 = 34% 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Thunder Snow, the first horse ever to win back-to-back Dubai World Cups, has been retired from racing.
Breeding plans are still in the works for the globetrotting, fan favorite.

**** Blue Prize, the upset winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last weekend, sold for an eye popping $5 million at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky sales earlier this week.

**** Lil Indy, the dam of multiple Grade:1 winner Maximum Security, sold to Summer Wind Equine for $1.85 million.
A 12-year-old daughter of Anasheed, Lil Indy was consigned by Lane's End as Hip 13. She is believed to be in foal to Quality Road

**** Yoshida has been retired and will stand the upcoming breeding season at WinStar Farm. He will stand for $20,000.
“Yoshida proved to be a versatile racehorse, winning prestigious Grade: 1 races on dirt and turf,” said Sean Tugel, director of bloodstock services and assistant racing manager at WinStar. “He is out of a very fast Grade 1-winning mare and brings back the Sunday Silence/Halo blood to America through his sire Heart’s Cry. He is an outstanding physical that possesses heart as a racehorse that everyone is looking to breed into their foals.”

**** Two-time Grade 1 winner Paradise Woods has officially been retired from racing. The 5-year-old daughter of Union Rags finished last of 11 in the aforementioned Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Trainer John Shirreffs mentioned she will be sent to Lane's End Farm to begin a broodmare career.
Paradise Woods retires with earnings of $1,123,890 and a record of 5-3-3 from 18 career starts.
submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]

SHIMMER for Beginners: A Guide/FAQ ahead of SHIMMER 109-113

What is SHIMMER?

SHIMMER Women Athletes is an all-female wrestling company based out of Chicago. Before WWE’s women’s revolution, before TNA’s Knockouts division, before Women of Honor, there was SHIMMER. SHIMMER was founded in 2005 by Dave Prazak and Allison Danger because, as a manager in ROH and on the indies, Prazak got to know a lot of women in wrestling who felt underutilized and marginalized to being managers or valets because quite often they were the only women on the card. With Danger and a group of other women, Prazak put on the first SHIMMER shows, and the project snowballed from there. As Allison Danger said in a promo after Volume 1, they proved that American joshi was possible.

What is SHIMMER Wrestling like?

SHIMMER is stylistically diverse. They have WWE “main event” style matches, lucha, joshi, Britwres, ROH pure style, comedy, and more. Most matches are 8-20 minutes long. Singles, tag team, triple threat, and four-corner matches are their most common formats, and they rarely do stipulation matches. When they do, they build them as a big deal with storyline build. Most volumes tend to run 2-3 hours (more toward 3 hours on more recent volumes) and feature 10-12 matches. SHIMMER is fairly workrate focused, and very much in the vein of early ROH. There is comedy to be found, but it’s rare to have a comedy match as such, and even those are done with care for the match as a whole.
Because of SHIMMER’s taping schedule (four volumes over two days, twice annually, with a Wrestlemania weekend show as well), most stories tend to cluster around four-volume sets because of talent availability. This isn’t to say longer-form storytelling doesn’t happen in SHIMMER. The story of Trifecta (Mercedes Martinez, Nicole Savoy, and Shayna Baszler), for example, began at Volume 85 in June 2016, saw the trio break up over volumes 96-97 and Nicole Savoy win the SHIMMER Title from Mercedes on volume 99 in November 2017, and wasn’t put to rest until Volume 100 in April 2018 (Mercedes has continued to have a bone to pick with Savoy, but the breakup of Trifecta has given way to a broader “all the veterans against the young champion and the other new blood” kind of story since Volume 101).
One thing you’ll never see in SHIMMER is a vacant title. Dave Prazak has made it abundantly clear in interviews that SHIMMER will never vacate a title – they will always find a way to work around the circumstances of an injury or signing (One example: Sara Del Rey was SHIMMER Tag champion at the time she got signed to WWE, so SHIMMER authorized a title change at an NCW Femmes Fatales show to get the title off her. Nicole Savoy and Cherry Bomb have been injured as champions, and in both cases they were able to heal before dropping the titles).

What are the rules for SHIMMER matches?

How often do SHIMMER shows run?

SHIMMER runs two taping weekends, one in the spring and one in the fall, taping two shows a day over the weekend. On Wrestlemania weekend they tape another volume, and this year Dave Prazak has said they intend to do more shows outside the Chicago area, though no details have come forth about that yet.

Who wrestles for SHIMMER?

SHIMMERfeatures a mix of US and international talent. The international talent comes from the UK, Mexico, Japan, and Europe. Big non-US names such as Aja Kong, Kana, Nikki Storm, Brittani and Saraya Knight, Sexy Star (as Dulce Garcia), Wesna, Ayako Hamada, Kay Lee Ray, Viper, and more have appeared for SHIMMER. Several current WWE talents on the main roster (Cesaro Becky Lynch, Bayley, the IIconics, Nikki Cross, Asuka, Ember Moon, Ruby Riott and Sarah Logan, Mickie James, Natalya, Beth Phoenix) and developmental (Shayna Baszler, Mia Yim, Candice LeRae, Chelsea Green, Dakota Kai, Deonna Purrazzo, Tegan Nox, Jinny, Toni Storm, Rachael Ellering ) have worked for SHIMMER. Of the 32 women in each Mae Young Classic, 17 from 2017’s tournament and 12 from 2018’s tournament have been inside a SHIMMER ring.
A breakdown of the SHIMMER roster:
I’m basing this largely on the last tapings. SHIMMER roster turnover means there’s a bit of churn due to wrestler availability, but some names have become pretty constant. Due to some wrestlers being signed by WWE since the last tapings (like Kay Lee Ray, Viper, and Rachael Ellering) or injured (Vanessa Kraven), I may be speculating in some of the below because of the major holes put in the upper card and serious midcard
The Current Upper Card: These are the women currently hanging around the title picture/most likely to be matched up with visiting legends:
The Serious Midcard: These are regulars who win more than they lose, but aren’t in the main event as often as the bunch listed above.
The Comedy Midcard: What it says on the tin; these are midcarders with primarily comedic gimmicks, though that doesn’t mean they aren’t serious threats.
The Lower Midcard: They lose more than they win, but they’re generally treated as credible.
Foreign Stars: Around a little less than the rest of the roster, these women are nonetheless treated as main-event caliber threats and often headline the shows they’re on.
Other people who matter: Significant people not covered above.
• There are a bunch of other workers who’ve either made little impact or haven’t shown up in long enough that I didn’t cover them here. Apologies to that whole bunch, but this thing is gonna be long as it is.

Does NXT UK stuff apply here?

While SHIMMER isn’t in the UK, they do like to bring over British talents, and so they have been hit a bit with the NXT UK contracts preventing wrestlers from doing appearances. This isn’t as big an issue to SHIMMER as it might be for us; Toni Storm, Viper, Kay Lee Ray, and Jinny are confirmed as no longer available to work SHIMMER because of this, but Prazak just sees this as opening up slots for hungry new talent to step in and prove themselves. Considering Dave Prazak was behind the curtain consulting during the first Mae Young Classic, there’s at least a friendly-ish relationship between WWE and SHIMMER, so who knows. Only WWE and SHIMMER know the score, so we just have to trust they know what they’re doing.

Who are the current SHIMMER Champions?

Are there any annual tournaments or special events?

Not annually, but SHIMMER occasionally puts together a special match such as their SHIMMvivor series match from Volume 50, the ChickFight Tournament from volume 71, and the the Rumble-style battle royal from volume 19. Their annual Wrestlemania weekend shows don’t always feature such matches, but Volume 53’s steel cage match was the first in SHIMMER history and only possible because they can’t fit a cage in the Eagles Club.

Are there SHIMMER power rankings?

Not officially, but if you need some these are based on my read of recent tapings:
That doesn't cover everyone, but it gives you a general idea. These tiers are not rigid, and a given worker can generally lose to anyone one tier below them or conceivably beat anyone one tier above them.

How can I watch SHIMMER?

If you want select matches only, and the ability to download them, SHIMMER offers matches on Clickwrestle. They also have DVDs for the physical-media collectors, and their streaming site StreamShimmer. It costs $9.99 a month. For that you get every SHIMMER show from volume 1 to vol. 78 (they’re currently catching up to the physical releases).
For the upcoming SHIMMER shows March 30 and 31 you can watch them as an all-day ippv WWN March 30 or on FITE.TV March 30 and March 31. For the Wrestlemania weekend show April 5, you can watch it on FITE.TV or WWN.

I'm new to SHIMMER, where should I start?

Option one is to start at the beginning. There’s a bit of a regrettable gap, currently, between where the DVDs/StreamSHIMMER are at, and current shows. The streaming site should help the promotion with the cashflow issue that’s been bottlenecking production of new DVDs by allowing them to bypass that for initial releases of shows, but we’ll see. With SHIMMER joining the 21st century and doing ippvs, I think you can get away with just watching these upcoming shows and diving in and using the stream site for catch-up and DVDs as collectors’ items.
Also, because I’m mostly ripping of Xalazi’s format and they did this for Stardom:

10 Matches to Watch on StreamSHIMMER (or SHIMMER’s youtube, where they have a few matches up)

These aren’t necessarily the best 10 matches, as I prioritized diversity of workers and styles over sheer snowflake count, but should give you a good idea of both the roster SHIMMER sports and the variety it offers. That said, some of these may spoil long-run storylines so if you’re planning to start at a point before any of them, use your own discretion when deciding what’s safe to skip to. In no particular order:

How can I find out what's coming up?

Following SHIMMER on Twitter or Facebook is your best bet.

I don’t want play catch-up, what are the big storylines right now?

Heading into volumes 109-113, I’d say the title pictures are the three most important things happening, and they’re all a bit open-ended:

I have other questions!

Well I might have other answers. I’m not all-knowing, though, and with the gap in what’s available, I can’t answer anything that really covers between 82-99 in any kind of detail. You might try contacting SHIMMER directly if it’s a question they’re better suited to answering.

You got something wrong/left someone out!

Ok, tell me about it. Happy to update/I could honestly use the help.

Bottom line me: Why should I watch SHIMMER?

If you want to see the most consistently high quality and best women’s wrestling happening in the United States, SHIMMER’s the place to go. A lot of women in SHIMMER have gone on to work in WWE, Impact, or ROH (and soon AEW with the signings of Kylie Rae and Britt Baker), but their best work stateside has very often been in SHIMMER. There simply isn’t a better body of quality American women’s wrestling out there.
One of the best qualities of SHIMMER is its respect for its titles. The championships are the biggest thing in the promotion, and there has never been a vacancy for any of them. In an interview on Madusa’s podcast, Dave Prazak said SHIMMER will never vacate a title – he feels that it cheapens the championship to do that. They will always find a way to work around injury or a signing to avoid putting a vacancy in the title history (as they did when Sara Del Rey signed as a trainer with WWE and they scheduled a quick title drop in Canada on an NCW Femmes Fatales show), no matter the situation.
If you want 40+ minute epics, SHIMMER’s not really the place for you. Their sweet spot is 10-15 minutes of excellently paced, hard-hitting wrestling. That’s not to say they don’t have long matches, but they are comparatively fewer.
As for downsides, SHIMMER can be very slow to adapt. It took until 2018 for them to put together a streaming site, and while the site works well enough, it’s rather limited in its capabilities. If you attend SHIMMER in person, be prepared for a very long day. Two tapings in one day, with each being about 3-3.5 hours, is quite a bit to sit through. It’s absolutely worth it, but I don’t blame anyone who can’t do it.
Due to the way tapings are scheduled as a weekend marathon, SHIMMER rarely announces many matches ahead of time. They don’t need to – they sell out their venue on brand and talent announcements alone. As they approach the weekend, they'll generally announce a few of the matches for the first volume of the taping and the stories progress from there (as of this morning, volume 109 has Nicole Savoy defending against Britt Baker and Rosemary returning to action against Samantha Heights). It’s great for them, but it does mean that you have to trust the promotion as a fan. They tend to advertise matches for their Mania weekend card, but this go around it will have to wait until after they finish the tapings this weekend.
The big issue SHIMMER faces is not a matter of content, wrestling style, or anything they have any real control over. Rather, it is their very small operating budget. Sure, the Eagle’s Club has a chandelier above the ring and that looks fancy, but SHIMMER operates on a shoestring. The small scale of the Eagle’s Club means that there’s no way to sell enough tickets to actually recoup the cost of the renting the venue from ticket sales alone (and that doesn’t count SHIMMER paying for travel expenses for international talent to come in, which they do). Essentially, SHIMMER lays out a lot of money and needs to sell the physical DVDs (and now subscriptions) to be able to cover the cost of the show. Except pressing the DVDs and having them made to a high standard also costs a lot of money, so SHIMMER pretty much lives off the sales of the DVDs and subscriptions. It’s led to them getting to the point of being a couple years behind on DVDs (Volumes 82-83 are only just now coming out on disc) because they simply don’t have the money to keep up in real time. Until SHIMMER can get their financial status situated, it’s going to be hard to close that gap, but without closing that gap it makes audiences hesitant to invest in the product, forcing a catch-22 situation.
Overall, it’s an exceedingly well-booked promotion that puts on at least a couple great matches per show and a good atmosphere. If you’re into women’s wrestling, you should probably be into SHIMMER.
American joshi is possible
submitted by SaintRidley to QueensoftheRing [link] [comments]

My Picks For Saratoga September 2, 2017. Final Weekend Of Meet.

This is closing weekend at Saratoga and is their last Saturday card of this year's meet. There are two maidens races for 2 YOs that is loaded and most can not be eliminated. A few of them will probably be heard from on next year's Ky Derby trail. I hope everyone enjoyed the few weeks of live racing and had a couple of memories that will last them for a long time.
1st Race: Claiming $25,000-- 3 YO & Up which have never won two races lifetime-- $42,000-- 6 1/2 furlongs--- I like the 7)Honor Thy Father(8-1) in this race. His trainer McPeek brought him to Saratoga and tried him on turf against $40,000 claimers in his last which was his 2nd start back from a long break. McPeek is dropping him into a $25,000 Claiming race which I normally do not like or bet, but it is still a big purse. The work since his last tells me McPeek is trying to get a big share of this purse. 5)Lookin At Blessing(15-1) is my pick for second. His trainer is a wiry veteran and seems to spring the upset when you least expect him to. But if take a good look at his races, the horse has raced against a lot of horses that were highly thought of in the beginning for this year's TC races. He could not chase them down nor was he really expected to. Zito gave him a two month break and several solid works in him on turf. Then he runs him on turf and he trailed. Now he returns to the dirt and in a class where he can compete for the first time since he broke his maiden last year. 2)Perplexed(12-1) will be my third pick. He remains the longest longshot winner at Saratoga this year when he surprise at 115-1. His trainer, Lukas, is a trainer that likes to win and this horse has rarely ran a bad race though it took him ten starts to break his maiden. He has worked 4 times since his win and each indicates he may run another strong one. WP 7, Ex Box 5-7, Tri Box 2-5-7.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs-- 1 1/16 miles turf-- $83,000--- I will bet 1)Piantagrane(20-1) to win and place. I liked him in his first start but the race was moved from the grass to the dirt. He is bred to run on grass and will be overlooked after trailing the field in his first start. His sire Scat Daddy was leading turf sire in the U.S. until his untimely death at the age of 11 in 2014. His dam Provocateur is a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro and bred with the same female line as both Songbird and Rachel Alexander. However, her bloodlines underneath was screaming turf but her connections only tried her on dirt four times before retiring her. 6)Say The Word(6-1) will be my pick for second. He too is royally bred for the grass and he has a trainer who excels at turf training. More Than Ready and his sire line is responsible for at least 3 BC winners including More Than Real and Regally Ready. Say The Word's 3rd dam is Dance Smartly, a multiple G1 winner and champion in the U.S. She is a 1/2 sister to Smart Strike and also is the dam of two Queens Plate winner in back to back years. 9)Telecommunication (9-2) is my pick for third. His sire Data Link is a G1 winning son of War Front who competed against the likes of Wise Dan during his career. This is his first crop to race and he already has a couple of foals competing in stakes races. His broodmare sire Mizzen Mast was fast and hails from the same sire line as Uncle Mo though his sire Cozzene was a multiple G1 winner and champion on grass in the U.S. His trainer, Brad Cox is a rising star in the training ranks. WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-9. If I decide to bet a super and the possibly is there, I will add the 2)Oroscopo(3-1) to my super box. His sire is Orb but he has some solid turf breeding in his dam family with solid works and his trainer, Casse, also trained Tepins.
Race 3: Allowance $75,000-- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- Non Winners Two Lifetime-- NY Bred--- State Bred races can be some of the most difficult races to handicap. Buit I like 1)Might Be(20-1) to spring the upset. She was claimed from her last race in an open maiden claiming in her third lifetime start and given to Englehart to train. Englehart gave her a break and fine tune what he thought she needed and she responded with 4 solid works. Englehart is one of the best at winning first time back off a claim. And she has solid breeding that wins often. Beware!!! 9) Frosty Gal(9-2) is my pick to finish second. Off of her recent back class, she is the one to beat. I have enough respect for her trainer that she is a must include on top and bottom of all my exotics bets. Barclay Tagg is best known as the trainer of 2003 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Funny Cide, but has many more accomplishments. I will use 7)Never Hungover(8-1) as my third pick. She looks to be cycling back into shape and D. Wayne Lukas put two good work in her since her last while the favorite in this race has two works that signals she is starting to tail off, though she beat my 3rd pick in her last. WP 1, Ex Box 1-9, Ex Box 1-9, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-7-9.
4th Race: Claiming $25,000-- 3 YOs & Up--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf--- $50,000--- I like 3) Spin Cycle(15-1) the best of these. He is another that is dropping several classes and his last is good enough to beat these. He showed speed to the top of the stretch before fading and Kimmel was put two works in to maintain his sharpness since his last. But the switch to a top jockey indicates he thinks the horse is ready. 11)Turbo Street(5-2) is the slight morning line favorite. His last was a race he could had won but he went wide and lost all chance, though only beaten 3 lengths. Castellano chose to ride my top pick, so Jose Ortiz picks up the mount. 1) Indebted(8-1) will be my pick for third. His trainer, Falcone Jr, actually developed Mind Your Biscuits last year before his owner sold him earlier this year. He is dropping a class and shortening up for this start and Joel Rosario is picking up the mount. WP 3, Ex Box 3-11, Tri Box 1-3-11.
5th Race: Allowance $85,000---N/W 2 Races Lifetime--- 3 YOs--- 1 Mile Turf---- My pick to win is Lookin For Eight(8-1). He last ran an even fifth in the Fountain Of Youth S. earlier this year in his first starts against winners. Given a break of three months, Casse has work him a number of times and he is indicated he is ready. His sire Lookin At Lucky was a multiple G1 winner son of Smart Strike whose only unplaced finishes were in the G1 Ky Derby when trapped on the rail in the mud and the BC Classic when 4th to Blame & Zenyatta after being sick a week before that race. With Shecky Greene, a son of Noholme II, as sire of his fourth dam, he should jump out front and never look back. 7) Sound Off(20-1) is my pick for second. He was claimed out of his first start by his present owners and after three to starts, they decided to move the horse to Bryan Lynch. With his breeding, there is no way he should be near 20-1, especially since Lynch is known for his turf training. He trains top 3 YO turfer Oscar Performance along with a few other top turf runners. 11)Brockton George(20-1) is my pick for third. His sire Harlan's Holiday and his broodmare sire Speightstown had dominate this year as stallions both on grass and dirt. His trainer McPeek has put four works in him since his last place finish to Irap in the Indiana Derby. Brockton George's fifth dam is a direct sire line descendant of La Troienne. WP 4, Ex Box 4-7, Tri Box 4-7-11.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight---2 YOs-- 7 Furlongs--- $83,000--- My top pick will be 6)Bourbon Resolution(8-1). This is his third start but in his last race, his jockey tried to move too soon into a slow pace for six furlongs and when the loose on the lead horse increased the pace, he flatten out. Wilkes has decided to switch riders and has given the mount to Luis Saez, a jockey known for his judgement of pace. Bourbon Resolution's sire New Year's Day and broodmare sire Vindication both won the G1 BC Dirt Juvenile in what was the last start for both. He has four works since his last, all near the best work for the distance on that day, signaling he is willing and ready to run. 1)Eclipsed Moon(20-1) will be my pick for 2nd. He has started twice but his first saw him break poorly and he was given too much to do especially after swinging wide on a track that is not kind to that style of racing to just miss as the 4-5 favorite. Shipped to Saratoga, he worked twice but probably was still feeling the effects of his first start. McPeek has put two more works in him for this start. His dam Beautician ran in top class throughout her career and is a daughter of Dehere, who like Medaglia D'Oro sired mostly top fillies. My pick for 3rd will be Soul Beam(20-1). In most maiden races, I would like this one to win, but his trainer has picked a tough spot for him to make his first start. Soul Beam's sire Perfect Soul hails from Medaglia D'Oro sire line and his broodmare sire Kingmambo is a son of two time BC Turf Mile winner Miesque and he is sire of Lemon Drop Kid. But Soul Beam's 2nd dam Weekend In Seattle is a full sister to A.P. Indy. He definitely could spring an upset base on his breeding alone and you can expect at least 30-1 on him. Stewart has also kept him on a steady work program and these types are always dangerous to ignore. 9)Lionite(2-1) was the beneficiary of my top pick moving too soon into a slow pace in their last and I expect him to be over bet in here and see only a minor reward for him in here, so I will only use him in the lower half of my exotics, if at all. WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-4-6, Save Small WP on 4, Super(if bet) 1-4-6 with 1-4-6- with 1-4-6-9 with 1-4-6-9.
Race 7: Allowance O/C $62,500--- 3 YOs & Up--- N/W Two Allowances Or 3 Lifetime Races Or $62,500 Claiming--- 6 1/2 Furlongs---This race looks kind of chalky to say the least. I will make 1)Still Krz(3-1) my top choice as he is the older class speed in here. 9)Singing Bullet(10-1) will be included in my exacta simply because he chase a solid pace in his last and the speed/ pace horse did not stop. There is no McCraken or Classic Empire in here, so this class should be a better fit for him. 6) Gift Box(2-1) would normally be my top pick but he is returning from a long break and I personally will not accept low odds on any horse with that big of a break. 4)Always A Suspect(6-1) should tuck in behind the early speed and make his presence known in the stretch. Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-6-9.
Race 8: Allowance O/C $62,500--- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares-- N/W 2 Allowance Races Or Three Lifetime Races Or Claiming $62,500--- 1 Mile Turf--- My pick to win is 4)Create A Dream(9-2) simply because she she taking a big step down in class and Brown can run her in here without putting her up for sale. But like the horse he entered in the last, she is coming back from an extended layoff and could be vulnerable. But Brown is much better at training horses on grass and 9-2 seems to be a fair price. 9)Perfect Wife(20-1) will be my pick to finish second. Her sire Majesticperfection is a G1 winning son of Harlan's Holiday and this sire line is making its presence felt. At first, I was going to use her as a tri kicker but upon further review, decided to move her up in my picks. Her trainer McPeek put a series of good works in her and she looks ready to run. 1)Truth In The Lies(6-1) has the breeding to take this race and her trainer is known for having them ready to run. Her last race was her first start for this trainer after being purchased privately by her current owner. She is eligible to improve. WP 4, Ex Box 4-9. Tri Box 1-4-9.
Race 9: Saranac Stakes--- 3 Yos--- $300,000---- 1 1/8 Mile Turf--- I like the 1) Mr Havercamp(8-1) to win. His sire Court Vision ran 4th to Big Brown in the Ky Derby and then three years later won the BC Turf Mile at 65-1 in his final career start. Court Vision's dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to Summer Squall, who won the Preakness in 1990 beating Unbridled and is the sire of 1999 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Charismatic. Mr Havercamp's broodmare sire is Medaglia D'Oro who has sired more than a dozen top fillies including Songbird and Rachel Alexandra. He has won both of his starts while clear from others and only needs to duplicate his first two starts. A must include for me!! I like 9)Rocketry(6-1) enough to include him in my exacta bet. he won a conditioned allowance in his last at 1 & 3/8 miles and is now being shorten up to run in a turf stakes race. His trainer, Jerkens, will have him ready and I expect a top effort from him. You will start hearing more from his sire Hard Spun in the next several years as he is starting to mature as a sire. I will add the 2)Yoshida(5-2) for my third pick to complete my tri box. He should be with the leaders from the start if he does not bobbled at the start this time and he came close to beating the favorite in this race then. His sire Heart's Cry is a son of Sunday Silence but his female family is full of turf runners and sires that should only add to his turf pedigree. WP 1, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-2-9.
10th Race: Spinaway Stakes-- 2 YO Fillies--- $350,000--- 7 Furlongs-- I will not be wagering on this race because I do not believe the risk is worth the probable reward. However, I think the 1)Separationofpowers(6-5) will be tough to run down and beat. 3)Lady Ivanka(9-2)should sit a dream trip behind two early duelers and may be the only one with a chance to upset. 5)Maya Malibu(8-1) will have a shot to win if the early duel materializes as expected, too. Her sire is Malibu Moon but her dam Island Sand won the G1 Acorn Stakes and ran 2nd to champion 3 YO filly of 2004 Ashado in the G1 Ky Oaks.
11th Race: Woodward Stake--- 3 YO & Up-- 1 1/8 Miles-- $750,000--- Another race I will not be betting as Gun Runner should win by as many lengths as he desires. 4)War Story(8-1) is the only one of these I like for second simply because he has ran better since he was switched to Navarro. Since someone has to run second, I may consider Rally Cry though I do not think he really wants to go this far.
12th Race: Glen Falls Stakes---3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares--- 1 3/8 Miles Turf-- $200,000--- I like 4)War Flag(3-1) to win this race. Her sire War Front is a top turf sire in the U.S. but he usually needs some help to get a foal to go this far. And with the dam line of War Flag, he got plenty of help. McGaughey knows how to get top efforts out of his trainees, so that should only help. 7)Sarandia(9-2) will be my pick to include in the exacta. I bet her in the Beverly D and she finished a non threatening six while beaten 2 1/2 lengths. She had arrived just a few days before that test from Germany and had one slow breeze to adjust to that track. Her trainer shipped her to New York and gave her a better breeze and decided to change to an American jockey in Junior Alvarado. I expect a much better performance this time and would not be surprised to see her win this test as she is taking a major drop in class. 3)Summersault(8-1)would be higher up on my list but the top two looks imposing in this test. But she has been a much improved horse this year. WP 7, Ex Box 4-7, Tri Box 3-4-7.
These are my picks for this Saturday at Saratoga. I hope you can find something useful that can help you cash a few good tickets. I believe in all my picks but I am and have always been willing to takes chances others might think is foolish. No horse knows his odds and will run as good as he has been prepared to. Find the live ones is what makes this game so much fun!!! Enjoy and good luck!!.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Ky Downs Closing Day September 14, 2017 Picks.

Thursday is the last live racing day of this Ky Downs meet. As usual, there are some very competitive races on the card, especially their maiden races, where a half dozen entries or more could win without it being a major upset. They are good betting races but it will take a little luck to connect on a nice paying exacta.
1st Race: Claiming $40,000-- 3 YO Fillies & Mares-- 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf-- No Restrictions Other Than Weight Allowances---$55,000: I like the 9)Galilea(12-1 ML) the best of these. She is coming off two N/W 1 other than Allowance races and is basically taking a step up in class. However, her last race at Presque Isle on the all weather track, she sat behind a slow pace and had no shot to run down a loose on the lead filly as the pace quicken late though she gave it her best effort while finishing 4th. She has a solid work since and looks ready. Her trainer is not well known but he knows what it takes to win with his horses. I will bet the 11)Five Hearts(8-1) in my exacta box. Her last win at Belmont Park saw her defeat a field of conditioned N/W 3 lifetime fillies for a $50,000 claiming tag. Then she was a no factor in her first race against fillies in a unrestricted $50,000 claiming. She has 4 works since, the last 3 very good and she drops a level in class for this test. With her bloodlines, she is hard to dismiss, IMO. I will use both the 1)Ursula Andreas(12-1) and the 2)Maryblueeyes(15-1) to complete my tri and super bets. Both have good works since their last race and both have trainers that have good eyes as to when their horse is ready to run. WP 9, Ex Box 9-11, Tri Box 1-9-11, Tri Key 9-11 with 9-11 with 1-2, Super Key 9 with 1-2-11 with 1-2-11 with 1-2-11.
2nd race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YO Fillies--- 6 Furlongs Turf---$130,000: I will bet the 7)Passion Plus(15-1) to WP. Her sire Passion For Gold is a son of Medaglia D'Oro and he won the G1 Criterium De Saint Cloud at 1 1/4 miles in France as a 2 YO. However, her broodmare sire is Mizzen Mast who is from the same sire line as Uncle Mo and he won the G1 Malibu S in his first U.S. dirt start. Sire of 2nd dam Silver Path is Silver Buck, who is best known as sire of near U.S. TC winner Silver Charm. I like the 11)She's All Skeet(12-1) to complete my exacta box. Her sire, Trappe Shot was a G2 stakes winning son of Tapit who won the G2 True North H as a 4 YO after running 2nd in the G1 Haskell as a 3 YO to Looking At Lucky. Her broodmare sire is Scat Daddy, a multiple G1 winner on dirt who hails from the Storm Cat sire line. He was the leading turf sire in the U.S until his untimely death at the age of 10 in 2014. She has start once in a five furlong off the turf race and finished a non threaten sixth after checking early while close to the lead. She had five works since, the first four solid and then a maintenance breeze because Sharp thinks he got her ready to roll. I am going to use 12)Bodega Bay(8-1) to finish my tri box, mostly because I like the way Ian Wilkes has prepared her for her first start with steady works basically every 6-7 days. Her sire is Bodemeister whose broodmare sire is major turf influence Storm Cat. Her own broodmare sire is Aptitude who ran second in both the 2000 Ky Derby and Belmont S. 10)Bridal Temper(9-5) is the morning line favorite and looks legit. I normally do like putting a horse that ran as good as she did in her 1st start this far down, but this race is loaded. There are several more that could surprise in here. She has two good works since her first start and is bred to run all day. WP 7, Ex Box 7-11, Tri Box 7-11-12, Tri Box 7-10-11, Super Box 7-10-11-12.
Race 3: Allowance O/C $62,500--- N/W 3 Lifetime Or $62,500 Claiming Price--- 6 Furlongs Turf-- 3 YO & Up---$145,000: I will bet the 11)Mongul Bull(10-1) to WP. His last race was in this class at CD and he chased to only speed throughout and finished second. This looks like a fairly weak field, especially compared to race before and any scenario is likely to happen. I will use the 1)Grand Candy(4-1) to complete my exacta. A repeat of his last two races could win this, but I would want a little higher odds before betting him to win. However, he is a good throw in on exacta and tri bets. His trainer, Brad Cox, has him as fit as he can get him. I look for 5)Aktabantay(6-1) to be close at the finish also and will include him in my tri. I will throw in 9)P Club(30-1) simply because he won his last race and is returning on 12 days rest, indicating a horse that is fit. His form also shows he tends to run his best on short rest. WP 11, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-5-11, Super Box 1-5-9-11.
4th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- One Mile Turf--- $130,000: I will bet the 4)Ladonia(15-1) to WP. She is a first time starter that has recorded several good works. Her sire Hold Me Back never tried the grass but he did win the G2 Spiral S and ran 2nd in the G1 Blue Grass S on all weather tracks. His sire Giant's Causeway And his broodmare sire Unbridled's Song produced runners that excel on both grass and dirt, though. Landonia's broodmare sire is Old Trieste, a G2 stakes winning son of A.P. Indy who took most of his wins in wire to wire fashion. I will add 2)Thirteen Songs(8-1) to my exacta box. She has finished third twice in 8 starts but this will be her first attempt on grass. She has five good works since her last but I like her female family for their turf ability. 12)Heavenly Hill(10-1) will be the horse I use to complete my trifecta. She has started twice, finishing third once on dirt. This will be her 1st attempt on grass. Her sire City Zip is a sneaky good sire up to a mile on turf. Her broodmare sire, Pleasant Tap dominated the old horse division in 1992 and finished his career running 2nd to A.P. Indy in the BC Classic. I will add the 9)Last Promise Kept(9-2) to my super. She finished a fast closing 4th in her 1st start after breaking poorly. Her sire Langfuhr is a son of Danzig whose foals are usually better on grass than dirt. Her broodmare sire is Distorted Humor and his broodmare sire is also Danzig. But what makes this filly even more likely is her 2nd dam Dot Dot Dash is a full sister to 6 time leading California sire Unusual Heat, whose foals loved the grass. WP 4, Ex Box 4-12, Tri Box 4-9-12, Super Box 2-4-9-12. The more I look at this race, I decided to removed the 2 as my 2nd pick and will use her to complete my super only instead. I simply like my other three picks better.
Race 5: Allowance-- N/W 1 Race Other Than Or N/W 2 Races Lifetime--- 3 YO & Up-- One Mile And Seventy Yards Turf--- $140,000: I am going with an upset here and picking the 6)More Alex (30-1) to WP. He seems to be having a problem with breaking but makes up ground rapidly in the stretch. With a decent break where he can get a better position earlier, he could blow by this field. He has the breeding on both sides that suggest it is only a matter of time before he comes through. I will take the 1) Mongolian Greywolf(15-1) to finish 2nd. His sire Paddy O'Prado ran 3rd in the Ky Derby before switching to grass and winning The G1 Secretariat among other races. He tried the Mystic Lake Derby in his first start against winners but caught a yielding turf that did not suit him or his style of running. He has recorded one work since that race and it was a bullet in 47 2/5 for four furlongs, best of ten at that distance on that day on Arlington Park all weather track. He is eligible to improve. 4)California Swing(9-2) will be the one I use to complete my tri box. He won a $50,000 claimer in his first start against winners but will find this class much tougher to handle. While he may be up to the task, nothing in his works suggest he is ready. 11)Brockton George(30-1) will complete my super box. You can throw his last race out as he was wide throughout on the inner turf course at Saratoga. It is rare to see an experience horse win with the kind of trip he had, much less an inexperienced one. If he runs to his breeding tomorrow, he will blow by this field and his odds will be in the 60-1 range. It will be simply be a matter of if he is ready, as this is his third race back from a layoff. WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-11, Super Box 1-4-6-11. I am moving the 11 into my tri box and still considering whether to box him in the exacta.
6th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YO--- 6 Furlongs Turf--- $130,000: I will make 12) Macha's Reward(20-1) my WP bet. He is a first time starter but is bred to excel on grass. His sire is Warrior's Reward, a son of Medaglia D'Oro who has the same sire as Kitten's Joy. Macha's Reward's broodmare sire is Smart Strike, a top turf sire but whose best two sons, Curlin & Looking At Lucky, were champions on dirt. The sire of his 2nd dam, Danehill, is without question the best sprint siring son of Danzig, as his all time record of 348 stakes winners proves. The 4) Lion's Share(7-2) will be my pick to complete my exacta box. His sire, Animal Kingdom, won the 2011 Ky Derby and later prove sufficient on the grass as his breeding suggested. Lion's Share dam. Miss Lombardi, won the Maryland Million Distaff at 1 1/8 mile on grass. He has 7 well spaced works for his first start and all are solid. I will use 1)Qarth(10-1) in my tri box. His sire is City Zip, a top turf miler sire and sprinting dirt sire. His broodmare sire is Awesome Again, another top sire whose foals normally is full of front running speed. Qarth is inbred 4x4 to major sire Blushing Groom, which should give him speed and class to burn. His works are not quite as good as my second pick but his bloodlines is. 10)Tap Daddy(5-1) will be used in my super box. He has one start on dirt but it was against one of the better maiden fields Saratoga offered this year. His sire is Scat Daddy, who was a better turf sire and his broodmare sire is Tapit. He has 4 turf workouts since that start and they follow Asmussen typical pattern of training. Winning is not out of the question if he picks up his game just a little. WP 12, Ex Box 4-12, Ex Box 1-4-12, Super Box 1-4-10-12.
7th Race: Allowance--- N/W 1 Other Than Or N/W 2 Lifetime--- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- One Mile Turf---$140,000: I will bet 14) I Remember Mama(8-1) if she draws in and that is possible because several of these ran a few days ago. She ran two very good races to start her career and only needs to run back to them to be a major factor. If she does not draw in, then my WP bet becomes 8)Araminta(12-1). Her sire is English Channel, a multiple G1 stakes winning son of Smart Strike. Smart Strike's 2nd dam is No Class, who was Nodouble's best producing daughter. Araminta's broodmare sire is Sky Classic, whose dam is No Class. I will almost always bet a horse that Nodouble shows up in on turf but it is rare to see his top daughter on both sides. She will put it together before long. 10)Noble Ready(5-2) will be my pick to complete the exacta. She has been running in stakes and this represents a major drop in class for her. She has 4 average works since her last start but Clemente is more dangerous when he takes it easy on his trainees between starts. L will use 11)Blue Collar(30-1) for my tri box . Her trainer Haarigan and jockey Julie Burke teamed up to win the second race on Ky Downs opening day on a horse at odds of nearly 28-1. Blue Collar has given a break after breaking her maiden in her first start at 46-1 on turf for this trainer. This is her fifth start back and she caught an off the turf muddy track in her last, and ran her best race this year though not her best surface. Her dam comes from an old time dam line of turf runners with a Storm Cat grand daughter thrown in as the 2nd dam. WP 8 or 14, Ex Box 8-14 or 8-10, Tri Box 8-10-14 or 8-10-11.
Race 8: Franklin-Simpson Stakes-- 3 YOs-- 7 Furlongs Turf-- $250,000: Since he is the class, I will make 5)Kitten's Cat my top pick. He has ran in nothing but stakes races since breaking his maiden and may have found a spot he can win in. However, he will need a top ride from Jose Ortiz or he could easily be upset. 6) All Right(30-1) broke his maiden in his 2nd lifetime start in the Ky Downs Juvenile Stakes at this distance last year at 44-1. After a start against G3 turf horses where he was overmatched, his trainer put him on dirt and kept him there until 2 starts ago. He dropped him into a $25,000 O/C race on turf and he wired the field by 6 1/4 lengths at one mile. He then raised him several classes and entered him in a $100,000 O/C at CD going 1 1/16 mile on turf. He lead to the top of the stretch on a brisk pace before fading to finish 4th beaten 6 lengths. His trainer, Kellen Gorder, has work him 5 times since his last and all suggested he has returned to top form. His sire is Dominus, a son of Smart Strike and All Right also crosses 5x4 to Nodouble. 8) Holiday Stone(8-1) will be my pick to complete my tri. He, too, has kept mostly stakes company though my top pick beat him in the Kitten's Joy in his first start in stakes. 9)Sonic Boom(3-1) looks like the only other horse that may be willing to rate in here and I will include him in the super. This field is full of need the lead types which is usually bad for front runners on grass. WP 6, Ex Box 5-6, Tri Box 5-6-8, Super Box 5-6-8-9.
9th Race: Ramsey Farm Stakes--- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- 1 5/16 Miles--- $350,000: I will bet the 5)Quiet Business(15-1) to win. Her sire is Quiet American who is inbred 2x3 to Dr Fager. Her broodmare sire is A.P. Indy and he was bred to one of the top turf female families in American history, producing his unraced daughter Indy Business. Quiet Business will run as far as they want to go and if she can avoid trouble, she will be tough to beat in here. 4)Kitten's Roar(2-1) is the class of this field but she is running at a distance that seems a little longer than she prefers. She is bred to get this distance and more though. I will include the 2)Tricky Escape(8-1) in my tri box. She should be the one who can control the pace to her liking and then be the one to run down in the stretch. I will add 10)Gotachancetodance(12-1) and box my super and see what happens. She is another that looks like she wants to run all day though this is a steep rise in class for her. WP 5, Ex Box 4-5, Tri Box 2-4-5, Super Box 2-4-5-10.
10th Race: Starter Allowance $10,000--- 3 YOs & Up Which Have Started For A $10,000 Claiming Price Or Less Since Sept. 14, 2015---$50,000: While I have no idea how this race will be ran, I will make a small wager on 4)Uncle Mitcho(30-1) to WP. He won his last race at this distance on turf and his breeding suggests that should not be a problem. I do not know if he can repeat but he looks as good as anything else in here. 2) Alpha Warrior(8-1) looks like the most likely winner, especially if you throw his last race out. It was against G3 company and he was severely outclass and was a no factor. But he has been consistent against this type at even longer distances. I will include the 9)Change Maker(30-1) in my tri box. After a lot of research, I found this same trainer pull off a 90-1 upset at Indiana Park earlier this year with a horse similar to this one. I will add the 11) National Defence(10-1) if I decide to bet a super which is unlikely. He could win this with his best race but I believe he is starting to tail off and I can not put him any higher for that reason. Otherwise, he will be one that will simply have to beat me.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Preview of the LeComte; Silverbulletday Stakes' and more

Well, that was quick, wasn’t it?
If you ask me, I say the winter doldrums are already over. Yes, it’s still cold in most parts of the country, but racing action officially heats up this weekend.
I looked ahead, all the way to the Belmont Stakes, and with the exception of the weekend of February 23rd, there is excellent racing every single weekend until the “Test of Champions”. Then just a couple of weeks after that, the Del Mar and Saratoga meets open.
Starting on Saturday, we will be traveling the country with stops at three different tracks with our highlighted race being the 2019 Le Comte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana.
While at the Fair Grounds, we will also be looking at the Silverbulletday Stakes, also a mile and seventy yards contest but for three year old fillies.
Elsewhere, we’ll head east of the Fair Grounds to Gulfstream Park in Florida for a look at the nine furlong, Sunshine Millions Classic for four year olds and up. There are also a pair of turf Stakes races on the Sunshine Millions Classic card; the Sunshine Millions Turf and the Sunshine Millions Turf Filly and Mare. Both are run at a mile and a sixteenth and carry $150,000 purses.
From there, we head west, all the way to Santa Anita for a look at the six furlong Palos Verdes Stakes, a Grade: 2 dash for four year olds and up.
Lastly, let me address my mistake last weekend. Somehow, I put the La Canada break down under the Marshua’s River Stakes and omitted the Marshua’s River Stakes completely.
I was having some computer issues but that’s really not an excuse. I apologize for any confusion it might have caused and, even though I had the winner and exacta in the La Canada, I’m going to scratch those two races and take the losses instead. That mistake won’t happen again.

Saturday, January 19, 2019
Gulfstream Park
Race: 6 (2:15 PM EST Post)
Sunshine Millions Turf
Big Changes had a phenomenal year last year while recording a 7-5-2-0 record. Take note in the two defeats he just missed behind multiple Graded Stakes winner Mr. Misunderstood and a razor sharp right now Great Wide Open. That :48 half mile work last week was 3rd of 145, he has excellent connections (Castellano takes the leg up from Brad Cox) and, with rain in the forecast for Hallandale this weekend, he can handle an off turf course…………………………It’s very rare when I can say a horse cuts back 7 ½ furlongs off his last race but that’s exactly the situation for Archer Road, who made a very strong middle move in the two mile H. Allen Jerkens last time out but weakened shortly thereafter, finishing ninth. This son of Leroidesanimaux cuts back to a more reasonable distance here and all five career wins have come on this very turf course. Albeit his rider is ice cold right now, he still figures bang up……………………..Class and Cash is a speedy, yet tactical, well bred, win machine. This good looking gray son of Exchange Rate (out of an A.P. Indy mare) is batting over .500 on the turf (13 for 27) and has hit the board an astounding 22 times out of those 27 starts as well. Although his recent works are a little slower than I’d like to see, he gets a major jockey upgrade here as 2018 Eclipse Award nominee Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the leg up……………………Honorable Mentions: Driven by Thunder looks overmatched here but there were a few things about him that caught my attention. First off, he was reclaimed by the PletcheRepole team two starts back (reclaims always peak my interest), he is 4 for 6 on this turf course and Pletcher reaches out to his “go to” rider Johnny V. in this spot, which totally makes sense being Johnny V. is 3 for 3 aboard this son of Overdriven....... “Ignore Pletcher, leave the track on a stretcher”…………………Second Mate also looks overmatched here but he made an enormous late run vs. lesser late last time out. He too will get a serious rider upgrade and he’ll go first time off the claim for trainer Jorge Abreu, who hits at an eye popping 25% in these types of situations. (My Play: $5.00 exacta box with the top 3 and a .50 cent trifecta box using all 5 horses. Cost: $60.00)

Race: 10 (4:15 PM EST Post)
Sunshine Filly and Mare Millions Turf
Starship Jubilee towers over this field in money won and “back class”. Even though she went down in flames as the 7/10 favorite in her last, her two previous races, which include a Grade: 2 win in Canada then set the pace and held very well late in the Grade: 1 E.P Taylor also in Canada, were both first rate efforts. This mare, who was purchased for $6,500 but has made over $560,000 thus far, is 7 for 14 on this turf course, gets the services of Javier Castellano and that sizzling half mile work last week (4F- :46.2) signals readiness…...logical choice…………Although Picara is 0 for 4 on this turf course, she has rounded back into top form in textbook style through her last three races. Trainer Todd Pletcher once again reaches out to Johnny V. and the only question left is, how will she handle what might be an off turf course being she’s never run over one?.......................Mrs. Ramona G is another who is peaking out in form right now. Gray filly by Kantharos, from the “Miah” barn, is 4 for 6 on the weeds and comes into this riding a three race win streak. Steps up but could be a menace……………………………Honorable Mentions: Southern Sis is yet another in good form right now as she has either won or has been “right there” on the wire in her last four races. Another daughter of Kantharos, this mare is 2 for 3 on this turf course and was making up ground late vs. Picara at 7 ½ furlongs….logically merits attention with the stretch out in distance in this spot…………Madame Uno is 3 for 5 on this turf course and just 1 for 7 everywhere else, so it’s safe to say she likes this surface and you get the “horse for the Course” angle. This daughter of the hulking First Dude will be making her first start in over seven months but she hasn’t run badly off of layoffs in the past…………………………Florida Fuego shows only two turf races but both were very good, third place finishes with both vs. open company. A red hot Jaramillo gets the leg up…listen, stranger things have happened. (My Play: $20 win on Starship Jubilee, .50 trifecta box with the top 5 horses. Cost: $80.00)

Race: 11(4:47 PM EST Post)
Sunshine Millions Classic
Although beaten by a country mile to the mega talented World of Trouble last time out, it must be noted that Noble Drama made a very impressive late run, coming from near last to get second, over a sloppy track. This gelding’s prior two races show a close up second behind Mr. Jordan (after a ridiculously wide run on the turn) and a game win over that same rival three back. He stretches out to a more suitable distance in this spot and, trust me, there are no World(s) of Trouble(s) in this field……………After valiantly winning his last, the gorgeous, almost all white Mr. Jordan is still getting it done at seven years old. Still another offspring of Kantharos, he figures to go off as your post time favorite, but I’m going to try to beat him in this spot based off the fact he is a strong 9 for 17 everywhere else in his career, yet a very ugly 1 for 17 on this oval…………………………..The regally bred Souper Tapit (by Tapit out of Grade:1 Mother Goose Stakes winner Zo Impressive) hit the board in all seven races last year but won just once. The now five year old chestnut ran a hole in the wind in his last while pulverizing mid level optionals which begs the question… did he run so huge last time out because he took his Gulfstream Park debut very well? Or was that a “freak” performance and he bounces over the moon in this spot? Your call from there…………………Honorable Mentions: Forevamo was just starting to get good towards the end of last year but has been put away since. If he picks up where he left off, we’ll be ok but my thinking is he is going to “need one”……………………..Dalmore, who either runs big or doesn’t run at all, has trained very well at Gulfstream Park for his Gulfstream Park debut and does have some back class to run well here. (My Play: .50 trifecta box, all 5 horses. Cost $30.00)
Fair Grounds
Race: 11 (6:20 PM EST Post)
Silverbulletday Stakes
Although Liora was allowed an easy lead in the sloppy tracked, Grade: 2 Golden Rod last time out, she was dead game in fending off upper echelon two (now three) year old filly Restless Rider the entire length of the stretch for the win. This $175,000 daughter of Candy Ride broke her maiden by a colossal margin prior to that and this distance hits her right between the eyes as she is 2 for 2 at 8 ½ furlongs. Of course, dropping from a Grade: 2 into a Grade: 3 won’t hurt her chances either…narrow margin in a very competitive horse race………………….Albeit Needs Supervision will be making her first start in 56 days, she merits respect in this spot. Good looking daughter of Paynter is just a half length away from coming into this race unbeaten in three starts. She looked really good drawing away from $75,000, NW1X optionals last time out, stopping the clock in a very strong 1:36.3 for one mile over a sloppy track. Moreover, you get the “first time Lasix” angle and kudos to her trainer for putting together a “textbook” work pattern for this race, including sizzling 6Fs in 1:10.4 two weeks ago…………………..Grandaria was visually impressive blowing the doors off of maidens two starts back, then came from near last with a brazen, six wide rally at the quarter pole to beat $50,000 optional NW1X in her last. This $170,000 daughter of Curlin must be considered here………………….Honorable Mentions: Although through slow early fractions and registering a slow final time, I liked the way Cowgirls Like Us took pace pressure for the first half mile, yet was drawing away late in her last race. That win was her third straight Stakes win. I also like the versatility she has shown through those three races as she is tactical enough for any pace scenario. Steps up in class big time here but could be a menace…………………..Mandy Blue is unbeaten in two starts, one on the turf and one on the dirt, for a 23% Brad Cox. Filly by the late Smart Strike is no easy throw out here. (My Play: .50 trifecta box, all 5, cost $30.00)
Race: 12 (6:49 PM EST Post)
LeComte Stakes
This race came up very strong this year….. I’ll gingerly take War of Will. This good looking colt by War Front faced much better on the turf last year and held his own quite well, including in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (close up fifth). He then proved his mettle on the dirt when hammering maidens on Nov 24. What I found even more interesting is he hammered those maidens some 30 minutes after my second place pick Plus Que Parfait just missed catching Signalman as both horses ran on the same track and on the same card with Plus One Parfait’s final time being just 1/5th of a second faster…..narrow margin here……………….. In taking War of Will, Plus Que Parfait scares the daylights out of me. This chestnut ridgling rallied from near last to just miss catching (at this point in the year) Kentucky Derby contender and close up, third place Breeders’ Cup Juvenile finisher Signalman in his last. On paper, and with the possible exception of my top pick, he meets no such rivals in this race……………………….……………..I have no idea why Roiland is 12-1 on the morning line. Handsome colt by Successful Appeal was a neck shy of coming into the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes unbeaten last time out. He completely missed the break in that race and was 12th early on but unleashed a very nice late run, passing nine horses late, to get fifth (behind Plus Que Parfait and Signalman). Trainer Tom Amoss has won this race four times, he gets “blinkers on” (signaling to me he might be forwardly placed here) and shows a monster work (5F- :59.2) two weeks ago. I was figuring he would open at 5 or 6 to 1…………………………………Honorable Mentions: Tight Ten showed zilch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but his two prior races were close up, second place finishes in a pair of Graded Stakes races. Colt by Tapit would be tough if he were to run back to either of those efforts here………………… I hate to put Mr. Money this far down as he completely outran his 41-1 odds in the aforementioned Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. After being among the vanguard early, he finished fourth that day. He’s been off since but he shows a good series of works coming into this and his trainer Bret Calhoun hits at a 21% clip when bringing horse back from between 46-90 day layoffs……………………After smoking maidens and gamely beating mid-level optionals to improve his record to 2 for 2 on this oval, Tackett deserves a mention and could conceivably better this rating………………………Manny Wah’s last three races consist of a three length win, chasing that beast they call Improbable (fourth) and being beaten by just one length in his Fair Ground (Stakes) debut in his last. (My Play: Tough race, $5.00 exacta box using the top 3, Cost: $30.00)
Santa Anita Park
Race: 9 (7:00 PM EST Post)
Palos Verdes Stakes
2017 Sprint Champion Roy H, who will most likely wear that crown again for 2018 based off his back to back Grade: 1 wins to end the year, makes his 2019 debut here. The now seven year old son of More Than Ready, who is not the only crack sprinter running this weekend (see X Y Jet in the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream Park), is 4 for 6 on this oval and has been training well at San Luis Rey Downs in preparation for this. His connections said they will “follow a similar path” to his probable championship year last year so I’m not sure he is 100% “cranked up.”….past that, he is very tough to go against…………………The stretch running Kanthaka is 3 for 5 on this oval and had not one, but two legitimate excuses last time out (overmatched in the Grade: 1 Malibu Stakes and was making his first start in that race in 7 ½ months at the same time). The son of Jimmy Creed should be tighter for this with that race under his belt and has also trained forwardly since…….looks next best………………….Awesome Anywhere is 4 for 5 on this oval vs. lesser foes. Steps up but this chestnut gelding ran lights out in his last race in October. “Big Money Mike” takes the leg up from Jerry Hollendorfer and he should come out running here………………………..Honorable Mentions: St. Joe Bay always gives a good account of himself on this oval as his 12-3-5-2 record would indicate………………Distinctive B has finished right behind St Joe Bay and Roy H in the recent past, signaling to me that when he’s right, he can contend. (My Play: .50 cent trifecta box, all 5 horses Cost : $30.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 0-5 = 0% (My Plays: -$90.00)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Probable Two Year Old Champion Filly Jaywalk had her first published work since winning the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly race on Nov 2.
The John Servis trainee went four furlongs in an easy :50 4/5 at Palm Meadows last Friday morning.
Servis caught the gray daughter of Cross Traffic in splits of :13 3/5, :26 1/5, and :38 3/5, and galloped out to five furlongs in 1:03.
"She went a nice, easy half. It was perfect," Servis said. "She galloped out super, so she didn't lose much (fitness). Everything went very good."
Servis said he is targeting the $200,000 Davona Dale for 3-year-old fillies going one mile March 2 at Gulfstream as Jaywalk's 2019 debut.

**** With the Pegasus World Cup coming up next weekend, some of the contenders put finals works in for the $9 million, Grade: 1:
* Florida Derby winner Audible went five furlongs in 1:00.4 at Palm Beach Downs. The Todd Pletcher trainee worked in company with stablemate Impact Player.
“Audible’s training really well,” said Pletcher. “I’ve been pleased with all of his works, particularly this morning. It was a good, solid five-eighths with a strong gallop-out that we were looking for. All indications are he’s in good form and coming up to the race very well.”
After finishing a disappointing second as the 1/5 favorite in Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, the gorgeous bay seems to be in good form.
“Unfortunately, before the race, the skies opened and we got a downpour into a harrowed track. They tried to seal it after that but it was too late. I think, more than anything, he didn’t like the condition of the track. He didn’t fire his best shot. He came out of it well and has trained better than ever coming into the Pegasus. It served its purpose in terms of conditioning.” Pletcher added. “I think a mile and an eighth is ideal for him”.
* At Gulfstream Park West, Gunnevera went six furlongs work in 1:15.4 under regular rider Irad Ortiz.
“He worked really good,” said Ortiz. “He’s doing everything right. Hopefully, he comes back to racing the way he is right now.”
* Grade: 1 winner Seeking the Soul went five furlongs in a bullet (best of 77) 1:00 flat at the Fair Grounds for trainer Dallas Stewart.
“Just a strong, basic work for him,” Stewart said. “That’s him. He’s doing great.
*Horse of the Year finalist Accelerate worked seven furlongs in a bullet 1:27.1
“I got him in 1:27, out a mile in 1:40 4/5, so it was a good long-distance work,” trainer John Sadler said. “On this track, it’s not super-fast. He’ll come back next week with more of a blowout type work, like five-eighths or something like that. But I’m glad we got this one in today because of the weather. It’s going to rain tomorrow and we’ve got a lot of rain next week.”
* In other Pegasus news, Grade: 1 winner McKinzie is “very doubtful” for the race according to trainer Bob Baffert.
Owners Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weitman had not paid the $500,000 fee necessary to earn a berth in the race even though only 11 starters are confirmed for the race, yet the race can include as many as 12.
“McKinzie is doing really well and he will get even better,” Baffert said. “You can tell that he’s changing. It’s just that we didn’t want to take any chances of taking a step backwards. I’ve gone down to Gulfstream for that race before and I know how demanding the race is. The payment is $500,000, so you have to at least run third for it to be a push.”
Baffert said the only way he would change his mind and try to get McKinzie into the race were if “something dramatic” happened to the body of the field.
“With horses as good as Accelerate and City of Light, someone like that would have to defect for us to change our minds,” he said. “If we were talking about Arrogate, American Pharoah or Justify we’d go. But this horse is different. He is a very nice horse, but he is still developing. I think that if we do right by him he’s going to wind up being the best older horse in the country and I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves this early in the year”.
Baffert said he has no particular plans for McKinzie, but mentioned the Santa Anita Handicap or the Metropolitan Mile as possibilities.
“The Met (Mile) would be a great race for him,” Baffert added.


submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Preview of the 2018 Long Island Stakes and more

As we roll through our holiday weekend, we will be looking at six more races across the nation on Saturday.
The highlighted race will be the $400,000 Long Island Stakes at Aqueduct in New York, a marathon turf event for three year olds and up fillies and mares.
While at Aqueduct, we will also be breaking down the Discovery, a nine furlong contest for three years old, and the Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship, a six furlong dash for three year olds and up on the “weeds”.
Heading west, we will make a stop at Churchill Downs for a pair of two year old races in the Golden Rod Stakes for fillies and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes for colts and geldings. Both races carry Grade: 3 status, are run for $200,000 and at a distance of 8 ½ furlongs.
Lastly, we head to California for a look at the Seabiscuit Handicap, a mile and a sixteenth, Grade: 2 test on the turf for three year olds and up.

Saturday, November 24, 2018
Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 6 (2:20 PM EST Post)
After valiantly…and I mean valiantly… chasing Justify home in the Belmont Stakes, Gronkowski seems to have gone off form. He disappointed big time in the Travers (8th at 7/2) then, although he did make up ground late, he checked in sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out. He’ll be the recipient of one of most favorite angles; dropping in class and cutting back in distance and I’m thinking his “B” race will still be good enough here. "He's been training well," trainer Chad Brown said. "I'm hoping the cut back in distance will be OK. He's been training pretty sharp, and it seems like the right thing to do with him right now. Hopefully, he'll get a good forward position and go on from there”. On a side note, if they beat him here my vote would be to shut him down for the winter, give him a little R&R and bring him back in the spring………………………Play “Pin the tail on the Donkey” with the rest of this field as they are difficult to separate. I’ll go with Plainsman who is peaking in form right now after winning his last two but will be taking a sizable step up in class……………….Ditto for Roaming Union as he too won his last two and steps up.

Race: 7 (2:50 PM EST Post)
Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship
Although he rallied nicely, passing eight horses in the final 2 or 2 ½ furlongs in the BC Turf Sprint, Disco Partner was simply too far back early on to make a huge impact in that race. This almost white, now six year old gelding obviously takes an enormous drop in class and stretches out to his best distance (6 for 9 at 6 furlongs) here……………….White Flag will also be dropping in class after chasing some fleet ones out in California last time out. Good looking, well bred colt also likes this distance and has hit the board in 9 of 11 tries on the turf in his career……………………….After breaking poorly in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, Hembree showed “nada” in that race after winning three of his previous four races. Colt by Proud Citizen drops to a more reasonable spot here and, for those of you who read me normally, no I’m not picking him to run well because Denise (my editor) and I use to own a portion of him……………………..Honorable Mentions: Blind Ambition finished within shouting distance of Disco Partner and White Flag his last two times out. More of the same would obviously be no surprise here…………………….Fielder has yet to be off the board in four tries on the turf in the mid-Atlantic region. Steps up but has been on the board in 12 of 16 overall career tries.

Race: 9 (3:50 PM EST Post)
Long Island Stakes
After winning her first two starts since coming over from France, Lady Montdore was probably slightly overmatched when chasing upper echelon older turf female Fourstar Crook in the Grade:1 Flower Bowl last time out while finishing third. Filly by Medaglia d’Oro drops back to a much more reasonable spot here and can handle what might be an off turf course…………………………..Golden Attitude won her first race off a 15 ½ month layoff at Delaware in September then just missed in the Zagora at Belmont in her last. Distance will be no problem nor will a likely off turf course and you get the third start off the layoff angle…………………….Pollara is another French invader who ran very well (close up sixth) in the Grade: 1 E.P. Taylor in her North American debut after winning two of her first three (with a second) in her home country. Filly by Camelot also drops to a more realistic spot in this race…………………………Honorable Mentions: Lady Paname is still another filly who ships over from France with a very good career record (7-2-1-2). This good looking gray came back running off a 54 week layoff for trainer Chad Brown when beating an allowance field. We have already established the fact that Brown is deadly with these fillies he brings over from other parts of the world…………………..Tricky Escape had a three race win streak snapped in the Grade: 1 Flower Bowl. Albeit, it appears she seems to be showing signs of cycling out of form, this filly should still come out running and could be prominent throughout.

Churchill Downs
Race: 9 (4:57 PM EST Post)
Golden Rod Stakes
Restless Rider absolutely towers over this field in just about every conceivable category including money won, speed figures, race record and class. She valiantly chased home Jaywalk in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Filly race in her last just three weeks ago. Already a Grade: 1 winner, (while the rest of this field probably don’t even know what a Grade: 1 is), this gray daughter of Distorted Humor is an easy choice here. Down the road in this spot and the only question left is, do you want to take what promises to be minuscule odds on her?..........................Break Curfew couldn’t not have looked any more impressive when wiring maidens in her racing debut. Good looking daughter of Into Mischief broke running, withstood pace pressure and pulled away down the lane while in nothing more than an in hand gallop all while registering the highest BRISNET speed figure in the field. She shows two strong subsequent works since as well. Albeit, she will be takes a major class hike and stretching out 2 ½ furlongs, her initial start was too good to ignore…………………………….Reflect made a strong middle move in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly race but spit out the bit and quit running at that point, eventually being eased and was beaten by 44 lengths. Not sure what happened that day, but she finished just 2 ½ lengths behind the top choice two starts back at Keeneland in the Alcibiades. Threat if she runs back to that race………………………………..Honorable Mentions: When I analyzed the replay of her last race, I liked what I saw when Champagne Anyone missed the break, then had to alter course down the lane yet still got up to beat high level optionals by a nose. Stretch runner by Street Sense’s other two career races were also very good and more importantly, she seems to be getting better as the distances get longer. Steps up but could run well in this spot also…………………………..Liora has improved through all three careers races, culminating with breaking her maiden by a colossal margin on this oval last time out. Nice work last week (5F-1:00.4) is an attention getter also…………………….Princess Causeway has won her last two vs. lesser, steps up, but might have a punchers chance here. That said, I’m not sure she likes the quirky Churchill Downs surface and her closing quarter mile (:25.4) in her last left much to be desired.

Race: 11 (5:56 PM EST Post)
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
Like just about everyone else, I thought Knicks Go’s wire to wire win, at 70-1 in the Grade:1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct 6, was a total fluke as he got an uncontested lead, over a speed favoring track in a strangely run race. But when he came back and took command of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile leaving the half mile pole and made probable two year old champion Game Winner have to work hard to get past him at 40-1…well…it’s time start thinking he just might be for real. I’m not completely sold on him yet, but if he replicates either of those two races here, he wins. A pair of strong works since the Breeder’s Cup is an obvious positive sign. Lastly, I’m not too concerned about the extreme outside post. He has shown enough early speed where he can/should come out running and establish a good spot early on…..Find out more about this gray son of Paynter in this race……………………….Conversely, I wasn’t as surprise as everyone else when Signalman ran third behind Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Cup (at 67-1) as I had him as an “honorable mention” that day. Nice looking colt by General Quarters also finished second behind Knicks Go in the aforementioned Breeders Futurity two starts back. So, if you like Knicks Go, and this cat chased and finished fairly close behind him twice, then logically you have to like him too. Of course he doesn’t have the greatest post in the world either………………………….I hate to put Dunph this far down as from what we’ve seen so far, he could be any kind. This dark bay gelding won at first asking by a wide margin (8 ½ lengths), was purchased privately and handed over to trainer Mike Maker, and then won a Restricted Stakes race by almost 8 lengths on this very oval. So, basically he is 2 for 2 with a combined winning margin of over 15 lengths and he likes this surface……scary…………….Honorable Mentions: Roiland is a neck shy of coming into this unbeaten in three career tries. This stretch runner, from the right now unconscious (12-34= 35%) Tom Amoss barn, has improved dramatically through all three starts as well…..could be coming late once again here……………………….I thought Mick’s Star ran well when being beaten by just 2 ½ lengths in a Graded Stakes turf experiment last time out. But now he returns to the dirt where his first two races were first rate, large margined wins……………….A few other side notes in this race: Limonite is about a half length away from being three for three coming into this and was beaten by just a neck to Roiland last time out………..After a bad start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Current didn’t run all that bad. The $725,000 son of Curlin tries the dirt for the first time here with but with only so-so works………………………..Blue Steel improved 14 ½ lengths from start one to start two and shows a monster work (4F- :46.2) two weeks ago. Steps up and stretches out here, however.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Race: 7 (6:30 PM EST Post)
Synchrony may not have cared for the good turf course, or the Grade: 1 competition, in his last at Keeneland. If you draw a line through that race for this well traveled son of super sire Tapit, you’ll see a turf record of 9-5-2-2, including being four for six this year and two for two at this distance. No worries that this will be his first race in 49 days as he has a habit of running well fresh and he shows a blistering work on Nov. 10 (5F- :58.2)…….looks best…………………Ohio should be nominated for “Claim of the Year” as he was taken out of a one mile, $32,000 claimer in August, where he came from 14 lengths back to win and stopped the clock in an impressive 1:33.3, before being beaten by just 2 ½ lengths (third) in a Grade: 2 last time out in a mile run in a supersonic 1:32.2. This veteran is clearly in peak form right now and a 25% Drayden Van Dyke gets the leg up…..looms a threat for sure………………….Big Score is just 3 for 15 in his career and 0 for 3 this year but he is showing me signs of sitting on a big race. He has improved through each of his last three races, including finishing in front of the top pick last time out, and his Nov. 17 work (4F- :48.1 from the gate) was excellent…………….…….Honorable Mentions: Ditto for Kenjisstorm who is just 1 for 6 this year and 1 for 7 on the Del Mar turf course in his career. But his past performances suggest he might be sitting on a big one as well……………………….Pincheck gets the proverbial “dark horse” tag in this race as, with no published works and this being his U.S. debut, I have no clue as to how he will run. All I know is he’s run very well in Ireland throughout his career and more importantly, Mike Smith sees fit to take the mount.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2018- Record: 99-233= 42%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A

Little Bets N’ Pieces

**** Juddmonte Farms announced Monday that Enable, the back to back winner of the Arc de Triomphe and the winner of the 2018 Breeders' Cup Turf, will stay in training for another racing campaign next year.

A tweet from Juddmonte stated the main goal for soon to be 5 year old mare, who is 10 for 11 in her career, will be an attempt at an unprecedented third straight Arc win.

**** 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing has been retired from racing and will enter stud in 2019 for a fee of $8,500 at Spendthrift Farm in Lexington, KY.
“Cloud Computing is one of those horses that sells himself immediately when you see him. He's a classic winner, but he's also the picture of what a classic horse is supposed to look like,” said Ned Toffey, Spendthrift general manager.

“For him to go on and win the Preakness over Classic Empire less than 100 days after making his debut, that's pretty special and it speaks to his quality. He's also out of a Graded Stakes running A.P. Indy mare, and the second dam won the Apple Blossom. There's a lot to like about Cloud Computing, and we believe breeders are going to love what they see.”

**** After an MRI on Monday, and his doctor telling him “You're done,” jockey Gary Stevens is retiring….. For good this time.

Stevens injured his C4 vertebra (pressing up against his spinal cord), following a post parade incident at Del Mar on Saturday.

“There won't be any comebacks from this one,” Stevens said.
“I was getting close anyway,” Stevens added. “Now it will be time to pursue other things, but thank God I'm not in a wheelchair.”

Stevens, who turned 55 this year, won his first race in 1980 at Les Bois Park in Idaho before winning three Kentucky Derby (1988 Winning Colors, 1995 Thunder Gulch, and 1997 on Silver Charm).

He was inducted into the National Racing Hall of Fame also in 1997.

Stevens stepped away from the sport in 2005 due to knee problems but two months shy of his 50th birthday in 2013, he announced he was making a comeback.

All told, Stevens won three Preakness’, three Belmont Stakes and 11 Breeders' Cup victories in 29,442 starts, 5,187 wins with career earnings of over $258 million.


submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Preview of the Springboard Mile and more

Don’t look now, but the road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby has started.
Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Keeneland and Los Alamitos have already run several races for two year olds who have long range plans for the Derby. Internationally, there have been two races in England run already and one in Japan.
On Sunday, Remington Park in Oklahoma City, OK will run the $400,000 Remington Springboard Mile for two year olds, as this is their long range race to start separating Derby pretenders from the Derby contenders. The eight furlong contest drew a field of eleven led by Epic Dreamer.
On Saturday, we will be looking at three races from Gulfstream Park in Florida headed by the $200,000, nine furlong Fort Lauderdale Stakes on the turf for three year olds and up.
While at Gulfstream we will also be looking at the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, which will feature the gorgeous and mega talented Audible, and the My Charmer Stakes, a mile turf contest for three year olds and up fillies and mares.
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Gulfstream Park
Race: 5 (2:01 PM EST Post)
Harlan’s Holiday
I still think the incredibly handsome Audible is/was the second most talented three year old in the land in 2018. He started the year off taking down the Grade: 2 Holy Bull and then the Grade: 1 Florida Derby. I thought he ran lights out in the Kentucky Derby as well, as he had multiple traffic issues but still finished less than three lengths behind an eventual Triple Crown winner. This $500,000 son of Into Mischief then went on the shelf for 178 days but came back with a jaw dropping performance in his last at Churchill Downs. As far back as seventh at one point, he made an eye catching, five wide move on the turn to assume command of the race and cruised home two in front, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:22.2 for seven panels. This bay colt has worked well subsequently, is 5 for 7 in his career and, more importantly, he is 2 for 2 on this oval. The only thing that’s left is….are you willing to take what will probably be 1/5 or possibly 1/9 odds at post time? …………………………Village King looks to be about the only threat to Audible in this spot. After winning three of his first five starts in Argentina, this colt has clearly started to adapt to his new surroundings. He has progressively gotten better through his first three races in this country, topped off by a dead game win in the (rained off the turf) Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct last time out. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who trains both Audible and this horse, sends out a solid 1-2 punch in this race……………………..Apostle is a $900,000 son of the “King of the (sales) Ring” Medaglia d’Oro. “MDO,” as he is affectionately called, sired an eye popping seven Grade: 1 winners last year and has sired more $1 million yearlings this year (8) than anyone else. Only two of greatest sires in the history of the sport (Northern Dancer and Storm Cat) had more. Not surprisingly, Apostle ran well in a turf experiment last time out and won his two previous races including one on this surface….looks best of the rest.

Race: 9 (4:05 PM EST Post)
My Charmer Stakes
This race, and the other turf race (the Fort Lauderdale), get a little dicey with rain in the forecast for Saturday at Gulfstream so tread lightly should the turf course come up anything but firm. That said La Moneda, who sports a 9-6-2-0 record on the turf, is the logical choice here. This five year old mare had a four race win streak snapped by a poor ride (wide all the way around and a mistimed late move) in her last. In fact, that ride was so bad it probably cost the jockey the mount, as she gets a serious rider upgrade here (from Alvarado to Johnny V.). Additionally, she can handle some “give” in the ground and she is 4 for 4 at this distance……………………….. Play “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” with the rest of the field as they are closely matched. I’ll go with Bellavais who looked sensational beating high level optionals in her first race in almost a year, last time out. This $485,000, well bred (by Tapit out of Grade: 3 Stakes winner La Cloche, by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper) filly zipped a mile (a distance she is 4 for 7 at) in a strong 1:33 flat and she too can handle a little give in the ground…………………….I’m not a big fan of Capla Temptress, who is 0 for 5 this year, but she should appreciate the drop in class and not having to deal with star turf filly Rushing Fall in this spot like she did in two of her last three previous starts………………….Honorable Mentions: If Lafta draws in off the AEs, give her a look. Although this daughter of Kitten’s Joy will be taking a pretty big class hike, she is 2 for 2 at Gulfstream since coming over from France last year………………Cherry Lodge is a gorgeous, $450,000 filly by Bernardini who can pop a big race now and again. She will be stretching out in distance in this spot and with that, I suspect they will rate her off the pace and come with “one run”. If that’s the case, you could hear from her in deep stretch ……………..I’m Betty G has good speed but appears to be cycling out of form. A 22% Tyler Gaffalione, for whom she is 2 for 4 under, gets the leg up….could still be dangerous if left alone on an uncontested lead.

Race: 11 (5:06 PM EST Post)
Fort Lauderdale Stakes
Qurbaan came from overseas and sprung a 13-1 upset in the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga in September. Five year old chestnut by broad spectrum sire Speightstown then launched a strong move leaving the half mile pole in the Grade: 1 Shadwell Mile in his last and, even though he hung like a cheap suit in deep stretch, he still managed to grab the “show dough”. He should relish the drop in class, the stretch out in distance and (hopefully) the firm turf course in this spot……...tepid pick in a tough one to figure out………………I’m not quite sure what happened to Glorious Empire in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last time out. The seven year old gelding showed speed for the first quarter mile but quickly shifted into reverse and backed all the way up to last before being eased late. His three previous races (all wins) were all top notch, highlighted by winning the Grade: 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga two starts back. He has good speed, draws the rail, drops in class and cuts back in distance…certainly one or all of those factors should help him rebound in this spot…………………..After winning his last two “on the engine”, Blacktype is razor sharp right now. This French bred speedy seven year old won a Grade: 2 last time out and can handle a soft turf course…..figures prominent throughout………….....................…….Honorable Mentions: Albeit Projected in 0 for 6 this year, he always gives a good account of himself. This bay gelding has either won or finished less than two lengths behind the winner in each of his last seven straight races. That, readers, is consistency…………………………Mr Havercamp is 7 for 11 in his career. Although he might be a little better on the synthetic surface, he did win a Grade: 2 in Canada three starts back and then ran a strong second in a Grade: 1 two starts back, both on the turf. Also, that last work at Palm Meadows (4F- :47 flat, dogs up) just jumps off the page…………………………..I’m not quite sure what to make of Almanaar. Is it possible he may not have cared for turf courses labeled “good” in his last two, including being beaten by just 3 ¼ lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last time out? Or is his form just erratic right now? I’ll go with the former and attack him like this….. If it’s a firm turf course come post time, I’ll move him up…if not, I’m going to leave him here…………………………Like Projected, Inspector Lynley is as consistent as the day is long. Five year old by Lemon Drop Kid rarely runs a bad race as his five on the board finishes in six races this year record would indicate………………..Zulu Alpha is peaking in form right now as he is just a neck shy of coming into this with a four race win streak in tow. My problem with him is even at peak form, I’m not sure he is good enough to beat these………………….Divisidero completely outran his odds (43-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last time out when he finished fourth but was beaten by less than one length. Stretch runner by Kitten’s Joy likes this surface too, but he just doesn’t “win” often enough for me.

Sunday, December 16, 2018
Remington Park
Race: 11 (8:52PM EST Post)
Springboard Mile
Epic Dreamer has speed and the rail, which is always a dangerous combination. Although this colt by Orb hasn’t run in 51 days and will be trying this surface for the first time, he sports one of the most impressive work lines I’ve seen all year. Note the monster work over the deep surface of Palm Meadows on Nov 23 (5F- :58.3). Then note how he comes back a week later and rips a :47.4 half mile also at Palm Meadows, then comes to Remington Park and scorches a :47.1 half mile. Bottom line here is, he looks “revved up” for this and that last work also signals to me he will handle the RP surface just fine……close call in a fairly wide open horse race………………………It looks as though Dunph didn’t care for the sloppy track, or the wide trip, when checking in ninth, being beaten by 14 lengths in his last. Gelding by Temple City was super impressive winning his first two (dry track) starts, distance will be no problem and shows a strong work last week. I’m inclined to give him a “mulligan” for that last race and expect a good/bounce back performance here……………I think it’s a little out of control that trainer Steve Asmussen entered almost half (5) of this field (11). If they all start, and I doubt they will, the best of the bunch appears to be Long Range Toddy. This handsome colt by Take Charge Indy dead heated for fourth in his debut before pounding maidens in his second try, winning by almost six while coming home the last quarter in a decent :25 seconds flat. From there, he went off at over 10-1 and upset the field in the $100,000 Clever Trevor Stakes in his last. Although he cut back in distance for that race, I loved the way he withstood pace pressure on the lead, spurted away from the field at the three sixteenths pole, yet had enough left to fend off the late runners in deep stretch. I also like the ascending speed figures through all three career races, it signals to me he is getting better…………………………Honorable Mentions: Bankit used a brazen, four wide, sweeping run to lead, then drew off late in manhandling a NY State Bred field at Belmont in his last. Good looking colt improved his record to 5-2-2-0 with that win. It’s tough to get a read on whether this is a step up in class, a lateral move or a slight step down but no matter how you slice it, he figures bang up……………….Tone Broke seems to be coming to hand for, you guessed it, trainer Steve Asmussen as he was visually impressive in his last two races. Colt by Broken Vow broke his maiden by a colossal margin two back, and then came with a four wide rally to beat high level optionals last time out. Lastly, note the :24.3 seconds it took him to negotiate the last two furlongs, it’s among the fastest in this field…………………………………..Marquee Prince chased budding super star Improbable last time out when understandably being beaten by 10 lengths. His obviously meets no such rival (or monster) here and his previous two wins/races were good…………………….Six Shooter is improving with each subsequent race and has won two of his last three, highlighted by beating first level allowance foes while getting a mile in a good 1:36.4 last time out. That said, He’ll be stepping up in class big time here and the last quarter mile in his last race was run in a very pedestrian :26.3.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2018- Record: 105-251= 42%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** North America’s richest race, the Pegasus World Cup, field is beginning to take shape.
The connections of Breeders’ Cup Classic third place finisher Gunnevera committed their stretch runner to the Jan 26 race.
In addition to Gunnevera, Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Accelerate, Seeking the Soul, Bravazo and True Timber are also confirmed.
Michael Tabor, Susan Magnier, and Derrick Smith's Coolmore have purchased a spot for a horse “to be determined”.
2018 Florida Derby winner Audible, assuming he runs well and comes out of the Harlan Holiday Stakes well on Saturday, is also being pointed to the Pegasus World Cup.
At this writing, 2018 Cigar Mile winner Patternrecognition is “under consideration” for the Pegasus.

**** Keros, a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, broke his maiden by 10 lengths on Saturday night at Turfway Park.
The four year old by First Samurai, who was ridden by Malcolm Franklin and is trained by Tommy Drury, covered six furlongs in 1:10.2.
Keros was making his first start since being gelded and his third start overall. Campaigned by Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider, like Blame, Keros has earned $15,342.

**** After recording a four furlong work in :47 seconds flat on Monday morning, it appears two time Grade:1 winner Bellafina will make an early return to the races for her three year old debut.
"She did it really easily. We weren't necessarily looking to go quite as quick as she did, but she did it super easily and was just feeling good," trainer Simon Callaghan said of the bullet work of 87. "It definitely was a very good work."
The effort marked Bellafina's third half-mile move at Santa Anita since finishing a disappointing fourth as the favorite in the Nov. 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs. Before Monday's workout, the daughter of Quality Road went in :50 flat Nov. 24 and :49 2/5 Dec. 2.
"She's doing really well," Callaghan added. "We gave her sort of a down period after the Breeders' Cup for a couple of weeks. She's been mentally very good. We brought her back galloping and based on this morning's work I think it's likely we'll bring her back in the (Jan 6 ) Santa Ynez Stakes."

***** It looks as though super mare Winx will be back in training for 2019.
Trainer Chris Waller said on Twitter Tuesday the winner of 29 consecutive races, including an unprecedented four straight Cox Plates, is coming back off a rest and that a campaign for next spring (fall in Australia) is “likely.”
She'll be 8 years old in 2019.
“Winx has enjoyed her spell and commenced some light pre training at the farm a few weeks ago,” said Waller. “She has progressed well since returning, is bright and looks in excellent condition so I look forward to her return to our stables this week”.
“I plan to meet with the ownership group and (jockey) Hugh Bowman next week to discuss her immediate future.”
Winx is currently tied in the “World's Best Racehorse Rankings” with Cracksman.
In her career, she was won an incredible 33 out of 39 starts.


submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]

The Dosage Profile System And Its Glaring Flaw!!

The dosage profile most handicappers wants to follow today is severely flawed. It is that way because since the original chef-de-race sires were released, there may have been a dozen added from more than 500,000 possibilities, and this includes Mr Prospector and Alydar. Since a profile must have a fairly equal balance of sprinters to distance horse to come close to be accurate, anyone can see the problem.
I researched the triple crown races from the 1960 to current and there have been 22 horses that have not qualified based on the 4.00 DI and 1.25 CD theory. 10 of those occurred in the Preakness which technically the DI should be on the high side and even slightly over, 5 in the Belmont and 7 in the Ky Derby, including the last 3 derby winners. The system has been broken 15 times since 1990, giving further evidence is it due more to updates than any other factor. Before then, it was broken 7 times including 5 times in the Preakness, twice in the Belmont and none in the Ky Derby. A few of these races were not really eligible for the system due to the natural of the tracks, which stipulates for fast tracks only.
Starting in 1960, Greek Money was the first to break the dosage in the 1962 Preakness. Information on him is limited but it looks like the Preakness Stakes was his longest win but also he won mostly on grass. His grand sire was Hyperion who was better known as a grass sire but is in the pedigree of at least a dozen Ky Derby winners. His broodmare sire was Nimbus, a son of Nearco, who won the English 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby on grass. However, he sired little as a stallion and should not have been a chef-de-race. But his dam comes from an important dam line and while fillies are not considered in dosage, she probably is the most likely reason Greek Money broke the dosage.
Damascus was the second to break dosage and he did so in both the 1967 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. He also would later win the Travers Stakes at 1 1/4 miles and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, ran then at 2 miles against older horses. just to mention a couple of races. His sire, Sword Dancer, also won the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 3 YO among his many wins and was one of the stoutest bred horse you will ever see. He also sired many with distance capabilities and though he was a better turf sire, there is not one good reason he would not sire a distance loving son. Then add Phalaris, Selene, and Blue Larkspur, all three 5x4 inbred into Damascus, and you have the making of a distance loving horse. Phalaris, back then, is what Nearco is today and actually is the sire line of Nearco and many more. Selene was St Simon's best producing grand daughter whose two full brothers sons in Damascus pedigree is grand sire of Tom Fool(sire of Buckpasser and Tim Tam) and great grand sire of Native Dancer. She is also the dam of Hyperion. Dosage simply missed one on this one because pedigree is definitely there.
Master Derby was next in the 1975 Preakness to break the dosage and according to dosage was the most speed oriented of them all. His sire, Dust Commander, won the 1970 Ky Derby becoming the first grand son of Bold Ruler to win the Ky Derby. His broodmare sire, Royal Coinage, was a champion 2 YO sprinter but also sired Venetian Way, who won the 1960 Ky Derby. However, this sire line was better at siring sprinters than distance type runners and since he is sire of the dam, it should have affected his pedigree pretty considerably. The 3rd dam is a daughter of Crafty Admiral, whose grand sire is sire of three Ky Derby winners and a TC winner and his broodmare sire is none other than War Admiral, also a TC winner. Since I believe the dam has the most influence in a pedigree, I have to agree that he should be over but not near as much or as speed oriented as they are saying.
Aloma's Ruler was next in the 1982 Preakness S. His sire, Iron Ruler, tried against the best throughout his career and ran 2nd four straight times in top preps for the Ky Derby before his owner decided to pass and wait for the Preakness. Since he should have needed help getting that little bit of extra distance, he was bred to a daughter of Native Charger, a G1 winning son of Native Dancer. Aloma's Ruler's second dam complete in all the big filly races of her time, though they were not graded back then, including a close 2nd in the 1 1/2 mile CCA Oaks. He should have been borderline for the distance, at worst, but dosage placed him significantly over, so I would have to disagree with this finding.
Conquistador Cielo was next in a muddy edition of the Belmont. He too had a fairly high dosage but one of the main rules of dosage is it does not consider anything but a fast dirt track. He was a son of Mr Prospector who has always been known for passing on his mud loving ability. Conquistador Cielo became Mr Prospector's first foal that ever won at 1 1/4 mile or further and the reason is in the dam family. Conquistador Cielo's broodmare sire, Bold Commander, a son of Bold Ruler, sired 1970 Ky Derby winner Dust Commander. His third dam was a daughter of Tim Tam, who was on his way to victory in the Belmont S to complete a TC sweep when he snapped his sesamoid bone a few yards from the finish and finished 2nd. Fourth Dam, Dustwhirl, is a full sister to TC winner Whirlaway and was a top producer in her own right. The Belmont was the only time Conquistador Cielo ever won at 1 1/4 miles or further, so I would have to agree with dosage on this one.
Snow Chief was next in the 1986 Preakness Stakes. Dosage said he could not successfully negotiate a 1 1/4 mile in top company and he hit that imaginary brick wall in the Ky Derby and finished 11th as the heavy favorite. He had beaten Ferdinand the only two times they met before the Ky Derby, in the Hollywood Futurity & Santa Anita Derby, but Ferdinand got the biggest prize in the Ky Derby. Snow Chief came back in The Preakness and won easily by 6 lengths. Both his sire Reflected Glory and broodmare sire Snow Sporting came from sire lines that produced many top distance runners. Apparently they did not sire enough to warrant consideration to be a chef-de-race and the dam line was slightly tilt towards speed, also. So I will be neutral on this one, but tend to agree with assessment.
Prairie Bayou was next in the 1993 Preakness. Prairie Bayou ran nothing like his sire, Little Missouri, who liked to get the lead and put others to sleep with a slow pace. His broodmare sire, Wavering Monarch, did his best running from slightly off the pace but he is the sire of Maria's Mon, who had a similar style to his sire but has sired two Ky Derby winners. However, Prairie Bayou's trainer seemed to recognized the dam is inbred to Tom Fool's two best sons, Buckpasser and Tim Tam(near TC winner) who both had a style he employed. Prairie Bayou had finished a fast closing second in the Ky Derby as the leader of that year's 3 YO crop, so the Preakness was no real surprise. Unfortunately, he broke a cannon bone in the Belmont Stakes and had to be put down. And since Wavering Monarch's dam is inbred to supreme and cluster mare La Troienne, who also is the sixth dam in the female family, I would tend to disagree with the final assessment. Just proof that dams do mean a lot to pedigrees.
Louis Quatorze is next as winner in the 1996 Preakness. His sire, Sovereign Dancer, is a son of Northern Dancer whose dam, Bold Princess, is a daughter of Bold Ruler. Sovereign Dancer is bred throughout his pedigree with racing royalty but did not display that on the track or at breeding, other than being sire of Gate Dancer. Louis Quatorze's broodmare sire, On To Glory, was a half brother to Ruffian, and showed promise but ended up being an average sire and runner at best in the end. His daughter, On To Royalty, was by far his best running foal and producer, so she definitely had influence in the way Louis Quatorze ran. But I will agree with dosage assessment, his speed should have been a little high.
Real Quiet is next as winner of the 1998 Ky Derby and Preakness and just missed winning a triple crown. Real Quiet's sire was Quiet American, a son of Fappiano, who was a late developing runner who stunned the bettors when he came from last and easily won the G1 NYRA Mile H(now Cigar Mile H)as a 5 YO, breaking the track record in the process. Quiet American's broodmare sire, Dr Fager, owns the world record for a mile on dirt, set while carrying 134 lbs. His 2nd dam Quiet Charm, is also 2nd dam of Dare And Go, the horse responsible for snapping Cigar's 16 race winning streak. Real Quiet's broodmare sire is Believe It, third in the Ky Derby and Preakness to Affirmed and Alydar. But where he really picks up class and distance capabilities starts at his 2nd dam, Meadow Blue, a full sister to near TC winner Majestic Prince. His 4th dam, Your Hostess, is a full sister to Your Host, who is best known as sire of 5 Time US Champion Kelso. So I absolutely totally disagree with dosage and its profiling on this one. This one and the next one I will list convinced me the dosage system was flawed and if I wanted to use breeding, I would have to research it myself. It took me a while to figure out how, but that is what I now require before betting.
Charismatic won the 1999 Ky Derby and Preakness and he is another one whose TC was denied due to injury after seemingly home free. Charismatic's sire Summer Squall, is a 1/2 to A.P. Indy and ran 2nd in the 1990 Ky Derby to Unbridled before winning the Preakness, beating that same rival. Charismatic's broodmare sire, Drone, won all 4 of his starts before being injured and retired. Drone's sire, Sir Gaylord, was a 1/2 brother to Secretariat and his best son, Sir Ivor, was a champion in Europe and bred on the same line as Drone. With sires of Foolish Pleasure and Native Dancer in the dam line, along with being inbred 5x5 to Mahmoud, Charismatic's pedigree was screaming for more distance, definitely not less. Simply cannot fathom why dosage says he is over on dosage and would prefer lesser distance.
Commendable won the 2000 Belmont Stakes by setting a slow pace and then having just enough left to hold off Ky Derby 2nd Aptitude. Commendable's sire Gone West, was a high class runner whose best distances top out at 1 1/16 miles, but he ran against the best of his year which included Alysheba, Bet Twice, Lost Code, Gulch and Cryptoclearance. He was best known for siring sprinters but occasionally could sire a decent distance turf horse. His bloodlines hinted that he should be able to, too. Commendable's broodmare sire, In Reality, also was best known for sprinters to mid distances horse. However, Commendable's dam, Brought Twice, is a 1/2 sister to Fappiano and they hail from Cequillo dam line, a daughter of Princequillo out of Boldness by Mahmoud. Despite the presence of Cequillo, I feel Commendable pedigree was tilted a little too much towards speed, so I would have to agree with dosage assessment.
Sarava won the 2002 Belmont Stakes as the longest long shot in Belmont Stakes history at 70-1. Sarava's sire Wild Again won the inaugural running of the BC Classic beating Slew O' Gold and Gate Dancer after a three way battle between these for the length of the stretch. However, Wild Again, like most of his foals, seem to enjoy going 1 1/8 miles much more than the classic distance, with the exception of Milwaukee Brew. Sarava's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, was Canada's 2 YO champion mostly because of his sprinting abilities and he continued to prove he was better at sprinting through his career. Deputy Minister did sire a couple of fillies who were U.S. champions and loved to run but for the most part, his foals loved mid distances the best. Sarava dam family is full of sprint type mares. So I will have to agree with this assessment based on dosage.
Giacomo pulled off a huge upset in the 2005 Ky Derby. Giacomo's sire, Holy Bull, won 13 of 16 lifetime starts but only one at 1 1/4 miles and that being the Travers Stakes. He was the beaten favorite in the Ky Derby when he stumbled at the start. He never lost when he broke first but also never hit the board when he didn't. Holy Bull had two separate influences of major distance sire of Mahmoud, the first his son The Axe II and second Grey Dawn II, a son of his daughter Polomia. Giacomo's broodmare sire, Stop The Music, is one of many from the Hail To Reason sire line but was unfortunate to be born the same year as Secretariat. Stop The Music was award the win in the Champagne Stakes after Secretariat tried to savage him as he was going by, one of only 2 losses for Secretariat as a 2 YO. Stop The Music's best son, Temperence Hill upset Genuine Risk in the Belmont Stakes at odds of 53.40-1. Since he crosses with Prince Bio, a close relative of Princequillo, on the dam side, I would think he would be under on dosage. But he is also one the pedigree experts can not be faulted for missing. Prince Bio was to Europe what Princequillo was to the U.S. A Distance Loving Sire.
Mine That Bird pulled off a major upset at 50-1 in the 2009 Ky Derby on a sloppy track. Mine That Bird's sire Birdstone, won the 2004 Belmont Stakes, foiling Smarty Jones attempt at a TC at odds of 36-1. Birdstone's sire Grindstone also won the Ky Derby in 1996, as did his sire Unbridled in 1990. Mine That Bird's broodmare sire is Smart Strike, the sire of both Curlin and Lookin At Lucky. While Smart Strike was a solid runner, he was even a much better sire and his line is starting to really spread out. My take on his pedigree is this is another dosage had no business missing, based on the sire records of both the sire line and broodmare sire line. Dosage is supposed to be about pedigree but when you omit two top lines, it will not be successful for too long. It was already flawed by not considering dams.
American Pharoah won the TC in 2014 as the favorite. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile ran 2nd in the 2009 Ky Derby and his sire Empire Maker ran 2nd in the 2004 Ky Derby before foiling Funny Cide's TC bid in the Belmont. American Pharoah's broodmare sire Yankee Gentleman was a minor state bred winning son of Storm Cat. However, his dam, Key Phase showed a little ability winning 5 of 6 starts, including the G1 Santa Monica at 7 furlongs. But other than that, his female family is one of the few families I have seen with no major stakes winner through five generations. So I would have to agree with dosage on this one, but actually believe his DI should be even higher. He was be beneficiary of what turned out to be a weak crop.
Nyquist won the Ky Derby in 2015 as the favorite. His sire, Uncle Mo, was a miler during his racing career but won the BC Juvenile Dirt at a 1 1/16, mostly because of his high class but also most were still developing and had yet to catch up. He was leading first crop sire, but most top out at around 1 1/16 mile, except this one. Nyquist broodmare sire, Forestry, was a son of Storm Cat whose biggest win came in the 7 furlongs G1 King's Bishop. Forestry's dam, Shared Interest won the G1 Ruffian at 5 and ran second in two more G1's. Her third dam, Sequence, is also the second dam of Mr Prospector. Most of Nyquist's dam family won a stake, but most were what look like sprints. His pedigree, top and bottom, is much better than American Pharoah, but still tilted a little too much towards speed. Nyquist breaking the dosage makes a lot more sense than the horse above does.
Always Dreaming won the 2017 Ky Derby on a sloppy track. Always Dreaming sire, Bodemeister ran second in the 2012 Ky Derby And Preakness. However, I really believe he would have been a much better horse if allowed to rate. He is bred too good to tinker with his best running style. Always Dreaming's broodmare sire In Excess is also grand sire of Uncle Mo. So I expect Always Dreaming's best distance will be around a mile, much like Uncle Mo. Always Dreaming's dam, Above Perfection, was a G3 winning sprinter that ran second in the G1 Prioress Stakes. So I agree with the assessment of dosage on this one. I believe he was more a beneficiary of a sloppy track more than talent and I believe his three races since points that out.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Racing - YouTube Motorsport Crash Compilation 2014 part 4 Top 10 Closest Indy 500 Finishes Indy 500 Carb Day Review and Race Predictions

Indianapolis 500 Odds. INDIANAPOLIS, IN (TheSpread) – The 2014 Indianapolis 500 is set to take place in a little over a week. Here is a look at the odds to win this year’s annual classic. View Real-Time Sports Betting Odds. According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Helio Castroneves and Marco Andretti are Carpenter comes in third on the list of Indy 500 favorites, going off at 15/2. Odds to win the 2014 Indianapolis 500 will be up until the start of the race on Sunday. But outside of the overall betting lines, Bovada Sportsbook has formed other payouts as well. 2014 Indy 500 Betting Preview Ed Carpenter wins back-to-back poles. Ed Carpenter will make his first start of this current IndyCar season at the Indy 500 and he’ll do so where he started last year’s race – in pole position. 2014 Indianapolis 500 Odds and Predictions: Favorites and Top Contenders: Arguably the most famous event in auto racing will soon add another chapter to its storied history when the 98th running of the Indianapolis 500 goes green on Sunday, May 25. Not only is the Indianapolis 500 the most well-known race around the world, but the track itself is one of the most famous both in the United State Power has 11 Indy 500’s under his belt with 1 win, 2 Podiums, 3 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, and an 11.9 average finish with 2 DNFs. Over the last 5 Indy 500’s, Power has 4 Top 10’s, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Podiums and a win. He’s raced well at this track since 2014 and I expect him to be a contender on Sunday.

[index] [10581] [13560] [6469] [7092] [11323] [12662] [7409] [9802] [7845] [13335]

Racing - YouTube

The Secrets to Winning The Indy 500 by SAFEisFAST. 2:35. Hitting the Apex ... How to Stack the Odds in Your Favor by ... Simon Pagenaud IndyCar Long Beach Visor Cam 2014 by The RACER ... 2014 Indy 500 Finish - Duration: 15:58. TBK Light Recommended for you. ... WHAT ARE THE ODDS COMPILATION - 95% LUCKY PEOPLE 5% UNLUCKY - Duration: 10:50. List Posts Recommended for you. 2014 Indy 500 National Anthem & flyover ... 1:33. Hero House Cat Saves Boy From Dog Attack - Today Show - May 15 2014 by Television Definition. ... Woman Beats Tough 'Wheel of Fortune' Odds, Wins ... Breaking down the Carb Day Practice, Freedom 100 and a preview of the 103rd Running of the Indianapolis 500. LINK TO MY NEW PATREON PAGE: https://www.patreon... With the Indy 500 today I decided to look at the closest finishes in the race's history in top 10 Closest Indy 500 Finishes All rights go to Indycar, ESPN, ABC and Speed Credits 2002damatta6, A r ...