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Trade Ranking for April 2020, all exchanges. The green percentages indicate profit! 🏆 Come on over to HeartNumber and join auto trading 🚀

Trade Ranking for April 2020, all exchanges. The green percentages indicate profit! 🏆 Come on over to HeartNumber and join auto trading 🚀 submitted by exturuder to ICOAnalysis [link] [comments]

Trade Ranking for April 2020, all exchanges. The green percentages indicate profit! 🏆 Come on over to HeartNumber and join auto trading 🚀

Trade Ranking for April 2020, all exchanges. The green percentages indicate profit! 🏆 Come on over to HeartNumber and join auto trading 🚀 submitted by exturuder to HeartNumber [link] [comments]

Trade Ranking for April 2020, all exchanges. The green percentages indicate profit! 🏆 Come on over to HeartNumber and join auto trading 🚀

submitted by exturuder to Crypto_General [link] [comments]

A new Set released on TokenSets that auto trades using the RSI indicator

A new Set released on TokenSets that auto trades using the RSI indicator submitted by acvgr to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Set launches Trend Trading, a new category of Sets that auto rebalance based on technical indicators. The ETH 20 Day Moving Average Crossover trades to "stop losses in downtrends and capture upside in uptrends"

Set launches Trend Trading, a new category of Sets that auto rebalance based on technical indicators. The ETH 20 Day Moving Average Crossover trades to submitted by acvgr to ethtrader [link] [comments]

A new Set released on TokenSets that auto trades using the RSI indicator

A new Set released on TokenSets that auto trades using the RSI indicator submitted by acvgr to ethtrader [link] [comments]

@nytimes: Germany's economy shrank in the second quarter because of trade tensions, new government data indicates. The German auto industry is caught in the crossfire between the U.S. and China. https://t.co/W9krKqzV1P

submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

@nytimesbusiness: Germany's economy shrank in the second quarter because of trade tensions, new government data indicates. The German auto industry is caught in the crossfire between the United States and China. https://t.co/dOs42RAOpW

submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

Came across with this interesting Auto trading software, it is hard for me to set my indicators and this helped me a lot

submitted by Aleverito22 to stockTrading [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020

Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.

Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)

The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth.
The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs.
“If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states.
Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains.
“I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%.
“I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California.
“Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.”
Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.

Election ahead

In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising.
Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China.
“If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.”
Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half.
Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.

Stimulus

The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses.
“So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins.
Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses.
The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%.
As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program.
“The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing.
“There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

When Will The Economy Recover?

The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone.
“As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.”
Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.

Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight

The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Share Price Performance

The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq 2% Pullbacks From Record Highs

It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017.
In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Christmas in July: NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally

In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years

As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end.
In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 26th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.28.20

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $GIS
  • $FDX
  • $CAG
  • $STZ
  • $CPRI
  • $XYF
  • $AYI
  • $MEI
  • $UNF
  • $CDMO
  • $SCHN
  • $LNN
  • $CULP
  • $XELA
  • $KFY
  • $RTIX
  • $JRSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 4 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.29.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.29.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Thursday 7.2.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 7.2.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $59.21

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FedEx Corp. $130.08

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Conagra Brands, Inc. $32.64

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $168.99

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Capri Holdings Limited $14.37

Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

X Financial $0.92

X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Acuity Brands, Inc. $84.45

Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Methode Electronics, Inc. $30.02

Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

UniFirst Corporation $170.54

UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Professional Auto Trading EA Robots & Indicators For Forex, Stock, Binary Options, Bitcoin Trading

Professional Auto Trading EA Robots & Indicators For Forex, Stock, Binary Options, Bitcoin Trading submitted by elena_avr to altredo [link] [comments]

AGRX Agile Therapeutics makers of Twirla, Very undervalued stock that I believe people are trying to keep quiet. What is it worth? DD Inside

Hello, I usually post in WSB but the market cap of AGRX violates their rules so I am posting here as I follow PennyStocks and have held some in the past (IDEX, NOG, GNUS just to name a few and currently have Rolls Royce which I think qualifies as a Penny Stock now) I appreciate many of the posts here and this is me sharing some of my thoughts. Some of you may know me from my very extensive HUYA DD. Which was taken down by the MODs (I believe) after I posted an update to some of the trading shenanigans that happened during earnings. Huya DD was solid and if you sold just half of your holdings before earnings you would have been up 900% on the FDs and the Leaps I recommended are currently up 400%+ (I am still holding these and plan on holding at least until August) Apologies for my grammar I have Dysgraphia and Dyslexia my sentence structure is brutal. This is how it comes out of my head I’m just trying to relay the information.
TLDR = Agile Therapeutics is worth $7.xx right now and could be bought out at any moment for a Billionish +/-, someone doesn’t want you to know about it.
BUY SHARES = 101-10001 shares depending on bankroll (Maybe more use your judgement)
Buy Options = Sept 18th $2.5 Call December 18th $2.5 call (Safe plays) I believe the price on this will move fast so as the price goes up the $5 options become safer plays FYI
any $5 option 7/17, 8/21, 9/18 (these are Buyout lottery tickets if you like the risky stuff but you could wake up one day to a big pile of money.
BUY THESE SHARES UP BECAUSE THEY ARE TRYING TO KEEP THIS STOCK HUSH HUSH
END TLDR
Agile Therapeutics is worth $7.XX+ maybe more right now. I take this position as Corona shouldn’t have dipped this stock and we just recently found out TWIRLA pricing and we have an idea of the addressable market. Agile could be bought out at any time for as much as $9-$11 which is 3x-4x it’s current trading price of $2.75 and people are trying to keep a lid on things.
AGRX $2.75 Current MarketCap $246 Million. What is it worth? DD Inside
AGRX Stock Overview
AGRX is a company built around a drug called Twirla. It’s a sticker that can be applied to administer birth control
Don’t want babies = Apply sticker
Want babies = Remove Sticker
Easy Peasy. This isn’t a new idea, it has been done before but that patch can cause increased amounts of blood clots so it has gone out of favor. At one time though 11% of the birth control market was a patch.
AGRX almost didn’t get this drug approved in fact many people left them for dead. Surprise!!! it actually works great for people as long as they are under 30 BMI which is obese classification.
This is actually a great way to take certain medicines if anyone knows of someone doing this with THC DM ME PLEASE. If AGRX can convert this Twirla tech to THC triple all numbers. LOL
There is a normal cycle to the value of things. AGRX is undervalued because it was a late bloomer and it almost wasn’t approved by the FDA. Once that approval happened the normal price run up occurred.
FDA Approval occurred Valentines Day February 14 (Point of Interest)
FDA Twirla Approval
Price Peaked at $4.77
The way these things usually work in Biotech is the next stage is dilution. Company sells stock to raise money to get them to the next stage
On the 21st of February AGRX announced it was issuing 15 million new shares @$3.00 this is normal and the sale was successful. AGRX now has enough money to make it to the next stages.
AGRX Dilution
Normally a short time after the Bio-tech stock will start creeping up in price as normal price discovery occurs. Not this time though as Corona jitters hit.
Corona Low
High Mid February, Then Dilution and bad timing on the Corona dip
Important thing about Corona it shouldn’t have affected AGRX stock price as people are not going to stop taking Birth Control (Possibly going to take more of it as they are in lockdown with the kids not in school) The purpose of the stock dilution was to give AGRX the money to work on the next stage. It was successful and AGRX could simply be working on getting their product to market with no financial worries in the short term the Corona issues in the world do not affect AGRX's ability to go to market as they got there money from the offering already.
The corona hit was amplified by timing. Biotechs usually follow this pattern.
A. FDA Approval = Shoot up then settle back down
B. Dilution = Drop and then settle back up.
Corona hit right at the bottom of the dilution stage and then the stock never had proper price discovery.
After the initial chaos of corona I am of the opinion that traders and institutions are actively trying to keep the lid on things and don’t want people to know about AGRX
AGRX Flat
AGRX Flat. Is someone trying to keep a lid on things?
Why?
  1. It’s a great product with a sure fire pathway to profitability.
  2. It’s one of the biggest buyout candidates in the Biotech space and a buyout could happen at any time.
  3. It's small market with not a lot of float with current retail buying situation retail could come in and wreck their plans to squeeze every last dollar out of the stock over the next 6 months. (We should do this)
AGRX is basically the golden egg of biotech stocks. Possible buyout at any minute and even If no buyout this thing has a guaranteed pathway to success and is very undervalued. We will discuss these points below.
  1. AGRX is undervalued and has a surefire pathway to success.
A. AGRX is not the first patch for BC. There is already a product called Xulane. At one point Xulane has 11% of the market so we know women want and will buy a birth control patch. Unfortunately Xulane gave some women blood clots and surprise surprise people don’t like blood clots. (This contributed to the the slow approval of Twirla) Xulane is sold for $140 a month currently and is still bought even with the increased blood clot risk because women really like this option.
What is it worth? Pinning down the value of a biotech stock isn’t easy and after doing some research the most uniform and logical valuation IMO is setting the market cap at yearly sales. So how much Twirla will AGRX sell a year?
We can look to Xulane for that. At it’s peak Xulane had 11% of the market
61 million women in reproductive range in the US. 60% use some form of birth control. If Twirla did just half of what Xulane did before the bloodclots what kind of market are we talking about?
61 Million (Reproductive women)
60% amount of women who use some form of birth control
36,000,000 potential Twirla Customers
5.5% Twirla customers (Half of peak Xulane)
1,800,000 million Twirla customers potentially.
Only recently did Agile announce pricing. (One of the reasons it has traded flat for months is there has been very little news out of the AGRX camp another reason why a Buyout might be cooking) Pricing of Drugs is like pricing on cars just because the sticker says something it doesn’t mean that is what it will sell for. Agile priced Twirla at $160 a month which is $20 more than Xulane (Small price to pay IMO for peace of mind when it comes to blood clots)
I did some research with the App Good RX and I found that Xulane could be had for as cheap as $99 a month. Lets apply a similar discount to Twirla and I am going to use $124 a month which is a significant discount of retail and a similar discount to Xulane. (When it’s new it might not even trade at a discount I am just being conservative in my pricing.)
1,800,000 Twirla customers at $124 a month is $2,678,400,400 Billion dollars a year in sales.
This is my prediction for the market cap of AGRX and it’s product Twirla in 3 or so years = $2.67 Billion Market Cap
Current Market Cap = $246 million. AGRX will be ready to go to market by Q4, by the time Twirla goes to market it is reasonable for AGRX as a company to be worth a billion dollars. ($1 Billion market cap is around a $10 share price) Remember AGRX is not inventing the wheel here. This has all been done before with success but it all went away when the blood clot thing happened.
In my opinion AGRX could be trading just under $10 a share by Q4 and would be trading in the $7.xx plus range right now if the timing for Corona wasn’t so bad for AGRX stock price.
***Wild Card *** I’ve already discussed AGRX and the fact that I think it should trade in the $7.xx range now with the $9+ range by Q4. At any moment we could wake up to a buyout announcement and I think it could be coming and might be one of the reasons AGRX has had some really weird trading or the bast few months.
Buyout Points of Interest
AGRX current CFO is Dennis P Reilly. He was also CFO of Barrier Therapeutics which was bought out by Steifel Labs. If you look up insider trading data on Barrier Reilly had similar purchasing habits for Barrier right before it sold to Steifel. Humans are creatures of habit
There has been NO INSIDER buying or selling since March other than the exercising of options for employee compensation. The last one being interesting the CEO exercised some long ago rewarded options that timing of is weird. Recently exercised decade old compensation option It’s almost like they are trying to tie up any financial loose ends before being acquired. This is important for SEC insider trading guidelines. I believe no one is buying/selling because they know a BO may be in order and they don't want to get a knock on the door from the SEC
CEO used to work for Johnson and Johnson and a few board members are ex JnJ executives.
Agile Office space is up for Lease
CEO had a Virtual Fireside Chat during which he made a possible slip by saying “If” we go to market. Might be nothing but also might be the truth coming out
Basically lots of insider activity that could point to a buyout and Twirla is a good candidate for a buyout as this type of product in a way is a known quantity. A larger player like Johnson and Johnson could profit from Twirla faster than Agile could.
Unlike many other “Buyout candidates” Agrx is a product with a proven desirability in the market. If no buyout happens it is on the pathway to being a multi billion company in just a few years and is worth far more right now than it is currently trading for.
It’s price has been suppressed by unique market conditions and over the past few months some very weird trading characteristics can be observed. It’s owned by a lot of institutions and they keep adding.

It will be a lot more in Q2
Fund Ownership

Institutional Ownership

Direct Ownership

Notice nobody is selling ONLY BUYING
Just recently it had a 7 million share AH transaction. Some people attributed this to it being included in the Russell but I reject that theory as it looks like no other stock that was added to the Russell that week had nearly as big of a block of AH transactions. Something is up and someone knows something.

Recent 7 Million AH trade, 11million on the day

I found this interesting comment while doing research on weird AGRX trading over the past 2+ months
Quote = “6/26/20 mm’s bought everything they could get their hands on at the laser straight bottom $2.83- added to existing inventory they could then fill that 7.3M “sell” (emphasis) at $2.82-$2.85 right at market close- which btw conveniently topped at .002 (+-) under vwap. with their inventory depleted- how do they restock below the obvious support at $2.80? tree shake- send it to the 50 ma- keep it there for a few days while they steal cheap shares from anyone that doesn’t know what they own. think about it- the day before being added to the indices, sitting at 6 weeks of proven support and well under any immediate resistance, with commercialization processes underway, cash in hand and niche product that will probably swallow the market” END QUOTE
AGRX has been trading weird for months. It looks to me like some people know that a buyout could happen at any minute and even if BO does not come the stock is very undervalued so they just make more money with no buyout just not as fast.
Because this stock is very closely held and not very often bought and sold by retail a few players that might be in the know have been able to keep a lid on things. My goal of this DD is to blow that up and help fellow retail buyers profit from this awesome product and get in before the big boys squeeze every dime out of the situation.
AGRX is only going to go up. It will either be a bullet train or a rocketship but wither way we should be the ones profiting.
Suggestions
Shares = 101, 1001 or 10001 shares depending on your bankroll (More if you have a big bankroll use your best judgement. (80/20 Shares to options are a good play in my opinion)
Small bank rolls get at least 100 so you can sell covered calls once this thing stabilizes. Buy in multiples of 100 for this reason. 1000 to 10,000 shares is a great goal if you have the bankroll. AGRX has been "Consolidating" for months this thing is a spring ready to release.

AGRX ready to release it's potential
Options = Sept 18th $2.5 Call December 18th $2.5 call (Safe play)
Any $5 option ranging from 7/17, 8/21, 9/18 these are basically BO lottery tickets as one day we might wake up to news that AGRX is being bought out from $750 million to $1.1 Billion dollars which corresponds to about a $9 to $11 share price. The RUMOR I have heard is AGRX has been shopping a nearly $12 a share buyout and the only reason it hasn’t happened is Corona uncertainty and $12 is steep. If they were willing to sell for less it would be sold and AGRX isn’t in any hurry to sell as they know they have a product with legitimate demand in a large market. If buyout were to happen my guess is around $9.xx a share. I would legitimately buy shares up to that price through the year 2020
AGRX don't miss the boat and sorry to the people trying to keep this thing quiet.
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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020.

The stock market is running out of steam with reopening trades fading and economic data ‘uneven’ - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”

‘Rolling Ws’

The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.

Fed can’t prevent volatility

While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

100 Days

100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Remains Positive

Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Credit Market Reversals

We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Very Slow Recovery In Economic Activity Is Continuing

As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Leading Indicators Turn Positive

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.

3 Charts That Have Our Attention

Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Year July Performance Tepid

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NKE
  • $RAD
  • $DRI
  • $WGO
  • $MKC
  • $WTI
  • $INFO
  • $ACN
  • $KBH
  • $SOHO
  • $FDS
  • $BB
  • $AVAV
  • $LZB
  • $XAIR
  • $CAAS
  • $MCF
  • $BWAY
  • $SNX
  • $GMS
  • $WOR
  • $QMCO
  • $AFMD
  • $EPAC
  • $WUBA
  • $USAT
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $APOG
  • $PRGS
  • $FUL
  • $AEMD
  • $AIH
  • $YRD
  • $STAF
  • $UFAB
  • $CAMP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.22.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Nike Inc $95.78

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. $70.27

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $12.41

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Winnebago Industries, Inc. $68.36

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

McCormick & Company, Incorporated $172.20

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

W&T Offshore Inc. $2.57

W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IHS Markit Ltd. $72.03

IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Accenture Ltd. $201.55

Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sotherly Hotels Inc. $2.96

Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

KB Home $32.29

KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 1st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 1st, 2020.

Expect more shocking economic data in the week ahead with the unemployment rate set to near 20% - (Source)

The big rotation into unloved stocks, like banks, small caps and airlines, took a break Friday, but it could be a theme that dominates trading again in the week ahead.
Investors will be assessing the progress of economic reopenings against some new headwinds for the market.
The stock market has been mostly discounting unprecedented weakness in economic data, but the May employment report will still be of major interest Friday. Economists expect it to show another shocking loss of jobs, this time roughly 8.5 million after the 20.5 million lost in April. The unemployment rate is expected to jump to a staggering 19.8% from 14.7% in April, according to Refinitiv.
Increasingly frayed relations between the U.S. and China reared up at the end of the week as a negative force for markets, and analysts expect that stress to continue to be a concern. The U.S. joined with other nations to condemn China’s new security rules for Hong Kong, which Beijing sees as an attempt to quell protesters.
President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. would end its preferential relationship with Hong Kong and also exit agreements with the World Health Organization, which he said failed with China to protect the world from the spread of coronavirus. The stock market moved higher after Trump’s afternoon announcement on relief there were no new trade actions against China.
“Hovering over this is geopolitical tensions. Over the weekend, what do we see out of Hong Kong? What do we see next week? This will be a major test for the west and specifically Washington,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Krosby said the market will continue the tug of war as investors dip into value names versus some of the growth names in tech, and the stocks that had benefited from the stay-at-home trade.
“We saw this early as the market came off the March lows. You had a very clear barbell,” she said. “The market tried to say what do we need now, what do we need when this is over and health care and pharma started to get a very strong bid. What you have now is ... perhaps intermittent, the value names, the ones that were really beaten up, broadening out the market, including financials.”
Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the social media and tech firms face dual headwinds, and that could hold back the overall market as well since they had been leaders in the move off of the March low. Trump on Thursday issued an executive order aimed at limiting legal protections of social media companies, after he got into a disagreement with Twitter.
“There’s a ratcheting up of pressure on technology firms and social media firms, a lot of overlap in big tech in terms of China exposure,” he said. “There’s a lot of headwinds facing Nasdaq names - shelter in place names and China-exposed technology names.”
Big tech stocks have lagged lately, but they are still a top leader quarter to date, with a 20% gain. In the past week, they were up about a half percent, compared to a 6% gain in financials and 5% rise in industrials. As tech lagged, so did the Nasdaq, gaining only a third as much as the Dow in the past week.
“This cyclical rally has longer to run, but what we’ve seen this week tells you the index cannot continue to rise solely with the cyclical outperformance. Tuesday and Wednesday the financials outperformed Nasdaq by 9.3%,” he said. Emanuel said the market usually does better when financials do better but this type of outperformance is rare and it doesn’t always signal positives.
“On average, the market is weaker in the medium term when you had that kind of massive outperformance. The message is both financials and technology tend to be weaker in the medium term. Longer term, you go back to the idea the rotation into financials is a positive,” he said.
Emanuel said the S&P 500 may be hitting the top of a near-term range, after it broke through the 3,000 level, a key psychological point. It also broke through its its 200-day moving average, a widely watched technical level. Some investors see a buy signal when the S&P is above that momentum indicator, which is literally based on the average closing level of the index over the last 200 days.
But Emanuel does not see that to be the case this time. “When we look at the frantic activity in the rotation, it leads us to believe the market is likely to fall back into the range in the coming weeks,” he said.
The stocks that have outperformed recently are the most sensitive to the economic reopenings leading to a pickup in normal activity. There is a question of how much air traffic or hotel stays can pick up until there is real medical progress against the virus.
“These stocks will be a matter of intense debate for months. I don’t think we’ll know the answer until we see if the fall brings a ratcheting higher of the virus, based on reopenings and a change in the weather, or if there’s a change in progress on a vaccine,” he said.
President Trump’s executive order seeking to limit the federal law that provides broad legal protection for social media and other online platforms is one headwind for that sector. Trump issued the order Thursday after Twitter put a fact-check label one of his tweets criticizing mail-in election ballots. The president accused Twitter of political activism.
Twitter, Facebook and Alphabet all protested the move, which hit Twitter’s stock hardest.
Emanuel said technology’ is at risk in China since companies like Apple have large revenue exposure in addition to supply chain issues.
In addition to the jobs report, there is important ISM manufacturing data Monday and auto sales for the month of May.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Weekly Market Performance – May 29, 2020: Equities Continue Run During A Shortened Week.

Equities

US equities delivered positive returns during this abbreviated trading week. All three indexes were higher, with the best performer being the Dow, while the Nasdaq lagged. The S&P 500 finished the week above the 3,000 level for the first time since early March. The small cap Russell 2000 along with the mid-cap S&P 400 Index enjoyed positive weeks, with both indexes returning over 2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“The S&P 500 has incredibly bounced more than 35% from the March lows,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Which would be the best bear market rally ever, suggesting this very well isn’t a bear market bounce, but the start of a new uptrend.”
The story of the week was a sharp rotation in the beaten up value sectors early on, as financials gained more than 6%, closely followed by real estate and industrials. Energy was the worst performing sector as oil price gains stalled, while communication services was the only other sector to lose ground on the week.
Looking at style, large cap value stocks beat out large cap growth by over 2% for the week.
Amid ongoing COVID-19 disruptions, labor and foreign policy challenges, along with risks associated with reopening the economy, US equities maintained their strength. Several timely indicators have pointed to a pickup in economic activity, such as an increase in new home sales along with an unexpected increase in consumer confidence. Our research suggests that second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) could contract as much as 30% annualized, but global progress in reopening economies combined with massive stimulus measures point to a potentially strong rebound in the third and fourth quarters.

International Stocks

The MSCI EAFE and the MSCI Emerging Markets Indexes continued its upward quest from the previous week, with the developed markets outperforming emerging markets by over 3%. Given the news out of Hong Kong last week as well as the Hang Seng’s struggles last Friday, its market rebounded modestly to finish up only a fraction this week. With the new changes in Hong Kong’s security laws, many are pondering the future of the nation/state as a global financial hub.
The action by China in Hong Kong concerning its sovereignty caused Washington to move toward placing actions against Beijing. Moreover, White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow added that the US may pay for companies to bring its supply chains from China and Hong Kong to the U.S.
European markets were higher this week, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index up over 3%. As in the United States, investors are concerned with COVID-19 and the subsequent reopening of the European economy, but European stocks have held steady, as the pandemic has been slowing and countries are opening back up. Fiscal stimulus is in the air overseas, as the European Commission is reportedly set to propose a 750 billion euro recovery package, while Japan is finishing a $1.1 trillion stimulus package.

Fixed Income and Commodities

Fixed income prices were little changed on the week, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining under 0.70%. Credit spreads tightened modestly as investors appear optimistic about the prospects of reopening the US economy as well as a potential pickup in economic activity.
Investment grade corporate debt issuance set a new record this week, with total new issues surpassing $1 trillion in just 149 days. This is a milestone typically reached in the second half of the year, as the Federal Reserve programs have suppressed yields, allowing corporations easier access to funding.
Last month showed a record drop in consumer spending of over 13%, however personal savings enjoyed its largest surge ever at 33%. Once the economy reopens, we should expect these trends to reverse, which would thus help the economic landscape.
Oil prices contracted modestly with July contracts for WTI crude posting a decline of about 2% for the week. Gold finished up a fraction, consolidating following an impressive rally of nearly 15% year to date.

Looking Ahead

Economic data for next week begins with the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index data along with the ISM Manufacturing survey and construction spending on Monday. Contractions are expected in both given the present climate. Wednesday is all about the autos, as we get total number of cars and trucks sold in May. The consensus, according to Factset, is that 11 million total vehicles were sold last month.
On Thursday, we receive new unemployment claims with optimism that the recent lower trend of claims continues. Also, we will get data on labor productivity along with the trade balance. To end the shortened week, Friday’s reports will include non-farm payrolls along with the unemployment rate.

Strong Breadth Surge

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 4. While that move marks an important milestone for an index that has rebounded more than 35% from its March 23 low, we believe market internals may paint an even more promising picture for future stock returns.
Technology and growth stocks were undoubtedly the leaders during the market drop, and many of these stocks have recovered to the point of having positive year-to-date returns. Year-to-date numbers for financials and industrials have been less impressive, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been left behind in the recovery. All 11 sectors have gained more than 20% from the March lows, and every sector, except for the defensive consumer staples sector, is up at least 30%, with energy’s 59% advance leading the way. This has led to strong breadth, or market participation readings. Through Thursday’s close, 96% of the components in the S&P 500 were trading above their respective 50-day moving averages, the most since 1991.
Perhaps more importantly, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, these momentum surges historically have been followed by above-average forward returns. February 2019 was the last time more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 went on to post a 29% gain for the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“Breadth surges like we’ve seen recently can signal short-term overbought conditions,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But for longer-term investors, they have historically marked uptrends with lasting durability.”

DJIA Up Seven Straight on June’s First Trading Day

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 (page 88), the first trading day of June is the third worst first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining just cumulative 304.59 points since 1998 (July is best with 1175.74 DJIA points gained). Over the past 25 years, DJIA’s first trading day of June has produced gains 72.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.04%. Sizable losses in 2002, 2011 and 2012 limit overall performance. S&P 500 has advanced 64.0% of the time. NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 56.0%. Russell 2000 has advanced 64.0% with the strongest average performance of 0.17%. Following three straight losses from 2010 to 2012, DJIA has advanced seven straight years on the first trading day of June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical June Trading: Early Gains Tend to Fade After Mid-Month

Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have faired better with modest average gains. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into or near negative territory depending upon index just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and turned into losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally lead by technology and small-cap.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May's Top Performing Stocks

After an absolutely amazing April, traders were in no mood to sell this May. Within the Russell 1000, which tracks the 1,000 largest US stocks by market cap, the index's components rallied an average of 5.3% with just over 70% of the index's components trading up during the month. In the table below, we highlight some of the biggest winners. Some of these names may sound familiar, but there are bound to be a few that you've never heard of.
This month, three stocks in the Russell 1000 gained more than 50%. The best of those three was Twilio (TWLO). After closing out April at a price of $112.3, the stock rallied 73% to just shy of $200 per share. So far in 2020, TWLO has almost doubled. Not familiar with TWLO? The company creates a number of APIs that enable voice, video, and messaging capabilities to their platforms. So when you get a text from UBER telling you that your car is on its way, that message is likely powered by TWLO's software.
Looking through the list of this month's winners, like TWLO, a large share of the stocks listed come from the Technology sector. Of the 34 names on the list, 14 are form the Tech sector, and the next closest sector - Consumer Discretionary - has just seven stocks on the list. The top-performing stock from the Consumer Discretionary sector has been Wayfair (W), which has gained nearly 38%. Apparently, after being stuck at home for the last several weeks, many Americans have decided they need some new furniture.
In total, eight of the eleven GICS sectors are represented on the list. The only sectors not making the cut? Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities. Maybe next month.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Since 1991

As we noted in yesterday's Sector Snapshot, if you were to pick out any one stock in the S&P 500, odds are it would be above its 50-DMA. Currently, 96.24% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-DMAs. On a sector basis, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, and Materials all have 100% of their stocks above their 50-DMAs. That is a huge share of the index sitting above their 50-DMAs at once. As shown in the chart below, times in which there have been this many stocks above their 50-DMAs have been few and far between. Of all days since the start of 1990, there have only been four other days with a reading as high or higher than the current 96.24%. The most recent of these was March 5th, 1991 when 96.59% of the index was above its 50-DMA. Other than that, only February 11th through 13th of that same year saw these types of readings (97.4%, 96.6%, and 97.8%, respectively).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Fund Flows Still Show Little Equities Enthusiasm

The table below gives a summary of mutual and exchange-traded fund flows as compiled by the Investment Company Institute for the week ending May 20th.
Equity fund flows remain negative. While there’s been lots of anecdotal evidence of retail enthusiasm in the equity market, fund flows are a very different story. This week was relatively modest, with equity fund outflows in the bottom 6% of all readings across mutual funds and ETFs. That totals $13.7bn of AUM out the door, with the worst hits coming for global funds which saw flows in the bottom 3% of all readings. The last 3 months and year have been the worst on record for aggregate equity fund flows across mutual funds and ETFs, and the worst three months on record for world equity funds. ETFs tracking equities have not seen large inflows but they are also not suffering the same kind of outflows as mutual funds.
Commodity funds and bond funds are a totally different story. The last three months have been the best on record for commodity fund inflows, while bond funds have seen readings in the top 3% of all periods for the last week and month; recent commodity fund flows are slightly cooler than their record pace of the last three months but are very, very strong nonetheless.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $ZM
  • $CRWD
  • $DKS
  • $DOCU
  • $WORK
  • $CPB
  • $CBRL
  • $AVGO
  • $CLDR
  • $SJM
  • $ATHM
  • $CIEN
  • $AEO
  • $TTC
  • $BZUN
  • $APPS
  • $GOOS
  • $HQY
  • $HHR
  • $DCI
  • $EXPR
  • $SMAR
  • $VRA
  • $CMD
  • $AMBA
  • $ESTC
  • $TIF
  • $CNK
  • $ZUO
  • $MDB
  • $BBW
  • $NGL
  • $MIK
  • $GHG
  • $ENS
  • $SCWX
  • $PD
  • $EVRI
  • $PLX
  • $YEXT
  • $GPS
  • $SAIC
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.1.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.1.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.2.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.2.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.3.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.3.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.4.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.4.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.5.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
NONE.

Friday 6.5.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $179.48

Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, June 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of $203.02 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.10 per share on revenue of $199.00 million to $201.00 million. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 66.43%. The stock has drifted higher by 62.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 83.7% above its 200 day moving average of $97.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 10.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CrowdStrike, Inc. $87.81

CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 2, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $165.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.02) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.07 to $0.06 per share on revenue of $164.00 million to $168.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 89.09% with revenue increasing by 72.54%. Short interest has increased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 75.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.3% above its 200 day moving average of $61.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 12.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $36.06

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 2, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $1.55 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 18% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 166.13% with revenue decreasing by 19.30%. Short interest has increased by 14.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $36.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 22, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,191 contracts of the $21.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DocuSign $139.74

DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, June 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $284.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $280.00 million to $284.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 32.73%. Short interest has increased by 18.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 86.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 79.4% above its 200 day moving average of $77.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,550 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 12.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $35.05

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 4, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $186.54 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.07 to $0.06 per share on revenue of $185.00 million to $188.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 23.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 66.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $24.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Campbell Soup Co. $50.98

Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 35.71% with revenue increasing by 2.85%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $47.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,519 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $107.13

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.15 per share on revenue of $607.31 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.83) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 10% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.87% with revenue decreasing by 17.89%. Short interest has decreased by 35.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 37.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.5% below its 200 day moving average of $138.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,518 contracts of the $185.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Broadcom Limited $291.27

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.14 per share on revenue of $5.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.82% with revenue increasing by 3.32%. Short interest has increased by 27.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 29.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.6% above its 200 day moving average of $284.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,209 contracts of the $170.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cloudera, Inc. $10.25

Cloudera, Inc. (CLDR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 3, 2020. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $204.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for results to range from a loss of $0.01 per share to earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $202.00 million to $207.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.00% with revenue increasing by 8.88%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $9.07. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,137 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

J.M. Smucker Co. $113.93

J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.23 per share on revenue of $2.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.21% with revenue increasing by 6.72%. Short interest has decreased by 29.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.5% above its 200 day moving average of $108.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 565 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 25th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 25th, 2020.

Market could get a boost as states reopen, but new economic data will show just how bad things got during shutdowns - (Source)

Stocks are likely to hang on every medical development and the progress of state reopenings, but there will also be some key economic data in the coming week that should provide a glimpse into the depths of the state shutdowns.
The Fed’s beige book of economic activity is released Wednesday afternoon. There is also April manufacturing data in durable goods Thursday and April’s consumer income and spending data Friday. While that should provide an interesting view of how sluggish activity became, the market is expected to focus more on May consumer confidence Tuesday and consumer sentiment Friday.
“The backward looking data is not going to get any attention paid to it,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “It’s going to be terrible, and that’s not going to be a surprise. Confidence has held up pretty well, all things considered. It’s the PPP and unemployment benefits. People who get some support for income seem to be pretty confident.” Congress is expected to take up changes to the Paycheck Protection Program for small business when it returns June 1.
April’s economic data is expected to be about the worst of the recession, since most state shutdowns extended through a good part of the month, ahead of May reopenings. First quarter gross domestic product is expected to have declined by 4.8% when a second reading is released Wednesday, but for the second quarter, GDP is expected to decline by a median 33.1%, according to CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update, a survey of economists.
Stocks gained in the past week, though rising tensions between the U.S. and China weighed on the market Thursday and Friday and could become a bigger headwind.
The S&P 500 was heading for a weekly gain of 3%, its second weekly gain in three. A big catalyst came Monday, when Moderna disclosed positive data from a small group of patients in an early trial, but it was a wild week of trading for the company’s stock as doubts arose about its limited results. On Friday, however, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said the data showed promise and he was cautiously optimistic a vaccine would be developed.
Astra Zeneca’s vaccine effort got a boost this week when it received $1 billion from the U.S. Health Department’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority to develop a coronavirus vaccine from the University of Oxford.
With investors focused on vaccines and state reopenings, market winners were the more volatile Russell 2000, up 7.8% for the week and the Dow Transports, up nearly 9.1% as airlines and other reopening stocks rallied. Airlines were up nearly 20% on the week. After a batch of earnings reports, retailers were also higher on the week, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF up 6% for the week.
Retailers are again among the companies reporting earnings in the week ahead, as the first quarter reporting season winds down. Costco, Nordstrom, Ulta Beauty and Burlington Stores are some of the names reporting.
Keon said he is watching the economic reopenings and says the success really depends on the behavior of individuals, and whether there’s another spike in infections.
“People are still scared,” he said. “It’s the personal behavior that’s going to make a difference to economic behavior. We’ll get back to some semblance of normal. It’s going to take awhile for people to feel more confident.”
He expects to see a rebound of economic activity in the second half of the year, but not a V-shaped recovery.
“By the end of the year, if we don’t get a vaccine, we will have made a lot of progress on a vaccine. I’m still cautiously optimistic that the market can hang in, and maybe end the year a little bit higher,” he said.
One big reopening in the week ahead will be on Tuesday when the iconic NYSE trading floor reopens.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Weekly Market Performance – May 22, 2020: Stocks Solid in the Midst of Health and Political Challenges

Equities

US equities delivered solid returns this week. With three hours to go in the week, all three markets were up almost 3% for the week, with the best performer, once again, the technology-heavy Nasdaq. The small cap Russell 2000 Index enjoyed an impressive rally, with the index returning over 9% for the week. The mid-cap S&P 400 Index also had a solid showing, returning almost 9%.
Amid ongoing COVID-19 disruptions, rising unemployment, and risks associated with reopening the economy, US stocks continued to rebound. The rally was supported by all 50 states easing restrictions, based on improving COIVD-19 trends. Several timely indicators have pointed to a pickup in economic activity, including higher credit and debit card spending and an increase in travelers based on TSA data. Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) could contract as much as 30% annualized, but global progress in reopening economies combined with massive stimulus measures point to a potentially strong rebound in the third and fourth quarters.
“The S&P 500 just had the second-best 40-day rally ever, with only the returns off the March 2009 lows better,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Near-term, we have some concerns of a well-deserved pullback, but historically, these huge moves have tended to resolve much higher over the ensuing 6- and 12-month periods.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In a change of pace, industrials were the top-performing sector for the week, followed by the energy sector. The worst-performing sectors were healthcare and consumer staples, and they posted returns that were slightly negative for the week. Looking at style, large cap value stocks edged out large cap growth for the week.

Leading Indicators Signal Potential Bottom

Leading economic indicators are signaling that the pace of economic deterioration may be slowing. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, fell 4.4% month over month in April. While this is an undeniably abysmal reading, it is an improvement from the -7.4% in March.
”The monthly LEI change tends to bottom early in a recession, and sometimes even before a recession’s official start,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Stocks are forward looking, so if investors feel confident that the economic damage will not accelerate from here, they may be more willing to put capital to work. We think today’s LEI number largely confirms April’s strong moves in the equity markets.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The performance of the 10 underlying components in the LEI does indicate some disconnect between financial markets and the real economy. The two largest positive contributors to the headline LEI number this month were stock prices and the interest rate spread, which were buoyed by a swift and robust monetary and fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, data series related to manufacturing, unemployment, and construction hurt the index, a reflection of the damage done to the parts of the economy in which workers are unable to perform their jobs remotely.
As local economies begin to reopen, we look for the industries disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 virus to begin to rebound. While this will likely be a bumpy process, progress will likely become evident in future LEI releases and confirm that the worst of the economic declines are behind us. We think this should pave the way for further equity gains over a long-term horizon.

What Happens When The Bear Ends?

The incredible rally off the March 23 lows continues for equities, with the S&P 500 Index now up more than 32% in 40 trading days. As impressive as the rally has been, we do have some near-term concerns, as we discussed in Downside Risk Remains. Higher valuations, US-/China relations, weakening technicals, and the historically troublesome summer months all could play a part in potential weakness after the record run.
“In 40 trading days, the S&P 500 gained 32%, which is second only to the 40 days off the March 2009 lows,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at history shows that after the initial surge off of bear lows, stocks tend to correct about 10%, which is something we could see this time around.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 21% in 30 days after all major bear markets. But once those initial rallies ended, there was a correction of more than 10% on average. Bottoms are a process, and as impressive as this run has been, we think the odds are quite high for some type of pullback or correction over the coming months. Thanks to our friends at Strategas Research Partners for the data points below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bottom Line EPS Beat Rate Below Average

The first quarter earnings reporting period unofficially came to an end earlier this week, and it should be considered quite a success given how well the equity market performed during this time period. Since earnings season began on April 13th, the S&P 500 (SPY) has gained more than 5%. Of course, the market's performance over the last month or so has much more to do with expectations on re-opening than how companies reported in Q1, but all things considered, the sky didn't fall when it came to earnings results.
In terms of how actual earnings reports came in versus analyst expectations this past earnings season, the trend wasn't all that rosy. We've been tracking "beat rates" for more than a decade, which measure the percentage of companies reporting stronger than expected EPS and sales numbers (relative to consensus analyst estimates). Our main "beat rate" trackers show beat rates on a rolling 3-month basis -- meaning it looks at all companies that have reported earnings over the last three months and tells you what percentage of them beat analyst estimates.
Below is a snapshot of both bottom-line EPS and top-line sales beat rates over the last five years as displayed on our website at our "Earnings Explorer" page. Notably, bottom-line EPS beat rates have been weakening quite dramatically over the last couple of months since the COVID crisis began. Just this week, the 3-month rolling EPS beat rate dipped below its long-term average of 59.37% dating back to the year 2000.
On the other hand, top-line sales beat rates haven't taken quite the hit yet. The current sales beat rate stands at 60.67%. While sales on an absolute basis fell dramatically at the end of Q1, the fact that sales beat rates haven't fallen dramatically means companies have at least managed to keep up with analyst expectations. A very weak sales beat rate would have meant companies were reporting numbers even weaker than already dour analyst expectations.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We also have a forward guidance tracker that measures the percentage of companies raising guidance versus the percentage of companies lowering guidance. When this reading turns negative, it means more companies have lowered guidance than raised guidance over the last three months. As shown below, right now our guidance spread stands at -16.08 percentage points, which is the weakest reading we've seen since early 2016.
One thing we've seen since the COVID crisis began is that more and more companies have withdrawn guidance altogether. It's hard to blame them. The ones that have issued guidance have mostly lowered expectations. While this paints a bleak picture for the future, if you look at this from a "glass half full" perspective, it actually leaves much more room for positive surprises down the road.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Down Five Straight Day After Memorial Day

Our office will be closed for observance of Memorial Day on Monday, May 25. U.S stock and bond markets will also be closed. As you spend some quality time off please consider taking time to commemorate those who have paid the ultimate price while serving in the U.S. military. Additionally, consider taking a moment to acknowledge first responders, nurses, doctors, law enforcement, firefighters, essential workers, scientists and everyone else that has tirelessly worked and sacrificed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
For decades the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been tracking and monitoring the market’s performance around holidays. The trading day after Memorial Day has a mixed record going back to 1971. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ have declined more often than risen on the day, but average performance is still modestly positive. Since 1986, the frequency of gains has improved, and average performance has also risen however, over the last five years S&P 500 has declined. The second trading day after Memorial Day has more advances than declines, but average performance is negative for NASDAQ. The third day after appears to have the best long- and short-term record combined with solid average performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election-Year June: Candidate Clarity Boosts Performance

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 49 years as a rule ranking seventh with a 0.8% average gain, up 27 of 49 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.8% in the month since 1979.
In election years since 1950, June’s performance improves notably. June is the #5 DJIA month in election years averaging a 0.9% gain with a record of twelve advances in seventeen years. For S&P 500, June is #2 with an average gain of 1.3% (14-3 record). Election-year June ranks #4 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 with average gains of 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. This performance improvement is most likely the result of presidential candidate field being sufficiently narrowed, and the ultimate nominees being identified.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $COST
  • $AZO
  • $DG
  • $DLTR
  • $CRM
  • $PLAN
  • $CGC
  • $BNS
  • $OKTA
  • $NIO
  • $RL
  • $WDAY
  • $CBL
  • $MRVL
  • $ESLT
  • $ADSK
  • $HPQ
  • $MOMO
  • $VEEV
  • $HIBB
  • $ZS
  • $ULTA
  • $TD
  • $CSIQ
  • $KEYS
  • $NTNX
  • $PLAB
  • $BMO
  • $BURL
  • $RY
  • $MGIC
  • $BOX
  • $ERJ
  • $ANF
  • $DELL
  • $CYD
  • $PLT
  • $VIPS
  • $COHR
  • $VIOT
  • $NTAP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 5.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.)

Monday 5.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.)

Tuesday 5.26.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.26.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.27.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.27.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.28.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.28.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.29.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 5.29.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Costco Wholesale Corp. $302.43

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, May 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $37.52 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.92 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.06% with revenue increasing by 8.00%. Short interest has increased by 9.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% above its 200 day moving average of $296.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,741 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, May 29, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, May 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $13.82 per share on revenue of $2.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $12.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.62%. Short interest has decreased by 36.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.3% above its 200 day moving average of $1,076.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.

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Dollar General Corporation $178.98

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, May 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.51% with revenue increasing by 11.12%. Short interest has decreased by 36.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $158.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,735 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

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Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $81.70

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, May 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $6.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.00 to $1.09 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.30% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 14.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.2% below its 200 day moving average of $93.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,796 contracts of the $80.00 call expiring on Friday, May 29, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

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Salesforce $177.85

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.69 per share on revenue of $4.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.70 to $0.71 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 24.18% with revenue increasing by 29.78%. Short interest has decreased by 10.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.2% above its 200 day moving average of $159.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,101 contracts of the $177.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

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Anaplan Inc. $51.06

Anaplan Inc. (PLAN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, May 26, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $102.34 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.13) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $102.00 million to $103.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.25% with revenue increasing by 34.96%. Short interest has increased by 39.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 21.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% above its 200 day moving average of $48.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 22, 2020 there was some notable buying of 988 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.4% move in recent quarters.

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Canopy Growth Corporation $19.42

Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Friday, May 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.26 per share on revenue of $94.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.25) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 61.19% with revenue increasing by 33.91%. Short interest has decreased by 16.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 22, 2020 there was some notable buying of 27,735 contracts of the $10.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 19.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.

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Bank of Nova Scotia $36.54

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Tuesday, May 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.91 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 10% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 44.53% with revenue decreasing by 32.91%. Short interest has increased by 18.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 28.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,054 contracts of the $35.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.2% move in recent quarters.

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Okta, Inc. $192.49

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $172.10 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.15) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.24 to $0.23 per share on revenue of $171.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.00% with revenue increasing by 37.43%. Short interest has increased by 1.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 49.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 52.8% above its 200 day moving average of $125.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 572 contracts of the $230.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

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NIO Inc. $3.27

NIO Inc. (NIO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, May 28, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $174.00 million to $183.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 23.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 36.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.7% above its 200 day moving average of $2.93. On Tuesday, May 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,260 contracts of the $2.50 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.9% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
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